Is India the next economic superpower?

Each week Arabian Business invites you to have your say on popular issue. This week: Is India the next economic superpower?
Yes | No

Joseph K Antony, via email: YES

It has a chance. There is an emerging Indian paradigm of development which can be globally relevant and applicable. Its contours are: 1. It is knowledge-based 2. It is based on cheaper labour costs 3. It is resource-sensitive and frugal 4. It is environmentally friendly 5. It is amenable to a bottom-up approach versus a top-down trickle down (eg microfinance) 6. it is relevant for the non-OECD countries, particularly because of the above factors.

Sudheer, via email: YES

Yes of course, a paradigm shift is happening to the Indian economy. If our leadership is able to keep up this tempo we will be able to achieve at least a place among the top five positions. We have a strong economic base, and plenty of resources and knowledge. But we must change our management style to avoid labour disputes and create a positive workforce, abolish corruption and implement a more transparent system for investment promotion in order to achieve our goals.

Fakuruddin Ali Ahmed, via email: YES

Definitely yes. Present growth in foreign and local business, changes in the living standards of rural and urban people, healthcare systems, education, technological growth, IT developments, outsourcing - all give a significant platform for India to become the world's single biggest economic superpower and to stay at the top.

Rajesh, Kerala, India: YES

India is at the heart of world innovation and has the greatest potential of any ‘emerging' economy on the planet, even more so than its Asian neighbour to the north, China. It is leading the way in banking, opening its doors to mass market retailing, expanding its aviation industry, and in turn the tourism sector is attracting millions more visitors every year and is bringing back hordes of talented people that previously left the country to seek their fame and fortune elsewhere. Where else on our magical planet can you say the same thing is happening? We have it all and will have more in the future, and it is not just us that it saying this but the majority of serious economists. It is time that the world sat up and took proper notice.

Rajendra K. Aneja, via email: NO

Not in the next 25 years! In 972, 50% of India lived below the poverty line. Today, after 35 years, 30% of the population is still below the poverty line. It will take us another 20 to 30 years to raise the entire population to become middle class. This seems daunting, but is a reality. Then, India can commence its march to becoming a global economic superpower. India's strengths are: 1) A vibrant democracy. We have survived for 60 years with elected leaders. 2) Secularism, the biggest strength, despite occasional strife. 3) A massive population, manpower. We have a billion population (ie) two billion hands for any task. 4) Reasonably sturdy political institutions, like parliament and the civil service. 5) Ambitious, an earnest population that is desperately hungry for success. India's weaknesses are: 1) An absence of charismatic leaders; there are leaders who can manage adequately, but no visionaries. 2) Inadequate investment in research and technology. We did not discover the laptop, mobile telephone or space travel. Our technology is adequate, that is all. 3) Inequalities in incomes and growth, which can sew discord. 4) Massive disguised unemployment, which prevents talented people from achieving their full potential. 5) Commitment and discipline can capitulate any nation to greatness. We lack these attributes, and across all segments too.

For India to be counted among the world's top five economies like the US, Japan, Germany, UK and France the GDP of US$691bn, has to grow seven to 17 times in the next 15 to 20 years. Even China's economy is three times that of India's. The level of infrastructure, and the absence of any advantages in raw materials, e.g. petroleum, are also deterrents to massive strides. India should have more modest aspirations in the next 20 years. Our goals should be 1) 100% population above poverty line, 2) 100% literacy, 3) A higher growth rate of 6.1% a year, between 1994-2004, to 15% in the next two decades 4) Contain inflation at 3% a year for next two decades, and 5) Build leadership qualities at all levels in the country. These five goals are a tall agenda. Then, India will rock!

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READERS' COMMENTS

Is India the next economic superpower?
Posted by Zak Gaur, London, UK on Monday 27 August 2007 at 20:00 UAE time

Sirs, India has no choice but to become a super power if it wants to survive in the global league of nations. The two biggest show stoppers to India achieving global economic supremacy are: (1) the professionalism and attitude of Indians, and (2) the over-supply of skilled workforce. Let's take the first issue above. I have has business dealings with (I assume) professional colleagues in India. Each and every time I have found that they are unable to keep to their word. If they say they will have something delivered by next week; I am lucky if it's delivered the next MONTH! Trust and keeping to your word are BIG factors in business, and Indians, I am afraid have a lot to learn in that area. This is not something that one can change overnight, it's part of the societal fabric and attitude to professional dealings, etc. But, as an Indian based in London, and wanting to deal with Indian businesses, I find it very difficult to find reliable and trustworthy Indian businesses. If we look at the second issue of over-supply of workforce, again my observation is that India will soon face an unemployment crunch at the mid-senior management level; as there is now an over-supply of well-educated workforce, and more competition for professional jobs. Year on year double-digit growth is unsustainable in the long run, and India needs to develop better strategies to manage its growth. Lastly, we must remember that the super power status brings with it global responsibilities that requires a state to address issues wider than democracy - i.e. equality, social justice, accessibility, international cooperation, and henceforth.

Is India the next economic superpower?
Posted by Zak Gaur, London, UK on Monday 27 August 2007 at 20:00 UAE time

Sirs, India has no choice but to become a super power if it wants to survive in the global league of nations. The two biggest show stoppers to India achieving global economic supremacy are: (1) the professionalism and attitude of Indians, and (2) the over-supply of skilled workforce. Let's take the first issue above. I have has business dealings with (I assume) professional colleagues in India. Each and every time I have found that they are unable to keep to their word. If they say they will have something delivered by next week; I am lucky if it's delivered the next MONTH! Trust and keeping to your word are BIG factors in business, and Indians, I am afraid have a lot to learn in that area. This is not something that one can change overnight, it's part of the societal fabric and attitude to professional dealings, etc. But, as an Indian based in London, and wanting to deal with Indian businesses, I find it very difficult to find reliable and trustworthy Indian businesses. If we look at the second issue of over-supply of workforce, again my observation is that India will soon face an unemployment crunch at the mid-senior management level; as there is now an over-supply of well-educated workforce, and more competition for professional jobs. A year on year double-digit growth is unsustainable in the long run, and India needs to develop better strategies to manage its growth. Lastly, we must remember that the super power status brings with it global responsibilities that requires a state to address issues wider than democracy - i.e. equality, social justice, accessability, international cooperation, and henceforth.

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