High energy prices here to stay

In a candid keynote speech to the region's energy professionals, the secretary general of the World Energy Council, Gerald Doucet, stressed the importance fossil fuels will play in meeting global energy demand for the next 40 years.

"Energy supply must double by 2050 to meet the needs of humanity, and even by then fossil fuels will still be dominant with oil and petrochemicals still the most vital fuel source," said Doucet.

The secretary general made his predictions in a keynote address to energy industry players from across the Middle East and Africa at the Microsoft Global Energy Forum, in Abu Dhabi.

The key tenant of Doucet's message was that through better management, and closer collaboration between big business and government, the ambitious target of doubling energy output could be met.

"The world has sufficient resources, skills and capital to meet these supply needs - the real challenge is getting resources from where they are plentiful, to where they are needed most."

Doucet confirmed the pre-eminence of fossil fuels in any future energy plan, most notably oil and petrochemicals, and said whilst renewables may play a greater part, any hope of relying on these in the decades to come is false and dangerous.

"Renewable energy will certainly grow in importance, but dependency on these sources will not be achieved, and in particular some governmental targets being talked about for biofuels are simply not tenable."

Brushing aside the ‘nuclear renaissance' as an unworkable notion, and one far from likely until at least the 2030s, Doucet said that the share of global energy produced by nuclear technology has been steadily falling for over a decade and, based on current projects, that drop off was a trend set to continue.

The delegate Q&A session was dominated by questions surrounding the current oil price, and where WEC saw it heading. "High prices are here with us to stay, WEC does not see oil dropping back to where it was in 2000 or even a $30 fall. Sustained high energy prices are here for the long term," he warned.

"In all the energy supply scenarios WEC has simulated to 2050 it is clear that energy systems will be under stress, even if the $30 trillion investment needed is forthcoming," he concluded.

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