Crisis of the class of 2009

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As school waiting lists lengthen across the Gulf, banks and private equity houses are set to invest billions of dollars in private education. But will learning take a back seat in the quest for profits?

Gary Stanton registered his daughter at her local school in Dubai before she was even born. Five months ago though he was told that four year-old Summer had very little chance of being accepted next September.

"We put Summer's name on the admission list before she was even born and the school was even built," he tells Arabian Business. "We were told that all of the places will go to children with siblings already at the school or children whose parents work at local companies. It's too late to put her name down for any other school," he says.

Last week as the school bell rang for the first time marking the start of the new academic year, it was revealed that as many as 10 pupils in the UAE were competing for one place at nursery and private schools.

The American International School in Abu Dhabi confirmed it had more than 500 children on its waiting list while Dubai College said it had 300 children take its entrance exam for just 120 places.

Analysts fear the growing shortage of school places could threaten growth across the region. "Long term any failure to address the current shortfall in terms of education capacity and subjects offered, has the potential to affect the economy," says Oliver Cornock, regional editor at the Oxford Business Group.

"The UAE and Dubai, in particular is positioned as the economic and commercial centre of the region. To sustain the country's position the provision of high quality public and private sector education will be critical," says Dino Varkey, senior director of business development for Global Education Management Systems (GEMS) Education.

The Research Unit at Mashreq predicts that the UAE's population will increase by 18 percent in 2011 to 6.88 million compared to 5.19 million in 2007. Around 40 percent of the population is under 15 years old.

Struggling to keep up with rapidly rising populations, regional governments are looking to the private sector to fulfill increased demand for education. Traditionally a sector restricted to privately run schools with educational expertise, the industry is now witnessing interest from a number of unconventional groups from private sector firms to private equity groups and profit making groups and schools.

"There is huge demand; education is the underbelly of Dubai. You see the Palm and the development taking place but actually there is a huge problem in terms of infrastructure in schools. There are people on waiting lists all over the place," says a Dubai-based teacher who wished to remain anonymous.

In the past, local education has fared poorly compared to worldwide standards. A 2007 McKinsey & Company report into regional schools noted that students' performance in core subjects such as Maths, Arabic, English and Science, was low compared to international standards.

"[The education sector] is at a critical situation and historically education has failed to keep a pace," says Cornock.

Governments are now recognising the need to invest in a knowledge-based economy at its most basic level. Last year the UAE committed $7.7bn of its federal budget to the education sector, representing 25 percent of its overall budget.

Last week the Ministry of Education unveiled new reforms for the region's public education. The renewed focus on modern teaching methods taught in schools represents an ambitious effort to reform the efficiencies of the state school system.

"Massive investment is required just to meet existing demand.

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