New generation

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Buildings covered with solar panels like this one in Germany could be the future here.

As governments embrace a greener future, can renewable sources remedy the problem of crippling power shortages? Jamie Stewart reports on the region’s plans for a greener future.

Reports have been doing the rounds of late concerning the GCC's long term energy strategy. Although if the reports are accurate, energy crisis might be a more appropriate term.

The warning began to sound with the release in June of the International Energy Outlook 2008 report, published by the US-based Energy Information Administration.

The report predicted that delivered energy consumption in the Middle East by end user sector will rise from 22.9 to 36.8 quadrillion BTUs, a rise of 61%.

A quadrillion BTU, the unit in which economies measure their energy production and consumption, is equal to around 1 trillion cubic feet of natural gas, or 170 million barrels of crude oil.

A second report quoted by sections of the media, released by the international economic forecasting firm Global Insight, carried within its pages an even more dire prediction.

It said that Gulf energy consumption will increase by 50% over the next five years alone, while power generation will increase by only 30%.

You do not need a computer to do the math. And even if you did have one, chances are, by 2013, you'd have no means of powering it.

The huge surge in predicted power consumption comes in the wake of the boom in gulf construction. But the necessary parallel boom in electricity generation has been lagging, though GCC governments have scrambled to keep up with their own ambitious development plans.

The Emirate of Ajman in the UAE announced its intention at the end of July to build the GCC's first coal-fired power plant.

Talk was also rife throughout July concerning a 1000MW coal fired plant in Duqm, on the east coast of Oman which, had it been confirmed, would have been the region's first.

The decision for a region that remains so rich in oil to turn to coal in order to generate power was questioned by some, in light of the accompanying high levels of pollution.

Dubai's forthcoming sustainable construction regulations, to be enforced as of January 1, 2009 and Abu Dhabi's Estidama program for sustainable building are both valuable indications that environmental concerns have at least made it to the agenda at the highest level.

So in light of the green construction revolution, what better way for GCC governments to demonstrate their collective commitment than by embracing renewable energy?

The current power shortage in Dubai's Business Bay is indicative of things to come, if the supply and demand gap is not plugged. With construction showing no signs of slowing, the authorities need to ensure that infrastructure is keeping pace with construction.

"Construction is moving at a very fast rate," said Sami Deek, project director at Al Shafar General Contracting, which is building 13 towers in the Bay Square area of Business Bay.

"So much so that you cannot enable the authorities or the experts to specify exactly what the power demands are and accordingly what infrastructure has to be built."

So the question is: can renewable sources provide the substantial amount of additional power that will be required down the line as a result of the construction boom?

The solar cycle

When it comes to renewables, the natural choice for the GCC is solar power. Life in the region revolves around the solar cycle. If there's one thing that is not lacking in the Middle East, it is sunshine.

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