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Discuss this article (2 Comments)Who do we want in the White House?
by Andrew White and Soren Billing on Sunday, 26 October 2008
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How the 44th President of the United States could transform the Middle East.
Lena fenton, a dubai-based catalogues editor, voted by FedEx early in October. She is a US citizen, and hopes that her ballot - cast for senator Barack Obama - will make a difference both back in the US, and in her adopted country, where she often finds it easier to tell people that she is Canadian.
"There are times when you pick and choose how honest you are about where you're from," she laughs. "Hopefully Obama will become the president; I believe he has a different way of looking at things."
On Fenton's desk sits an ‘Obama 08' sticker, sent to her by her father, a card-carrying Republican who voted for George W Bush both times, but who is now an enthusiastic Obama supporter.
"If he can win over my father I think he can win over a lot of people who are rather cynical at this point," she says of the Democratic nominee. So far, the senator from Illinois has won over a lot of people. Obama is maintaining a lead in national and state polls as he and Republican candidate John McCain focus on a handful of states that will be crucial in deciding the Nov 4 presidential election.
With less than two weeks to go before Election Day, Obama was ahead of McCain by five percentage points in the average of polls compiled by the website Realclearpolitics.com, last week.
The rest of the world is keeping a close eye on proceedings, not least the Middle East, which figures highly in the rhetoric and policymaking of both candidates. In July Obama travelled to Kuwait, Afghanistan, Iraq, Jordan, the West Bank and Israel, as part of an official visit to the Middle East and Europe. McCain, meanwhile, was in Baghdad in March to speak with US and Iraqi officials - his eighth trip to the country since the US-led invasion began in 2003.
"The US cares about three things in the region: oil, protecting Israel, and addressing security issues whether it be Iran, terrorism, or WMDs. Everything else is secondary," says Rami Khouri, director of the Issam Fares Institute for Public Policy and International Affairs at the American University of Beirut.
Many consider that George W Bush will be defined - and perhaps damned - by his dealings within the region during his eight year stay in the White House. And with the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan to the Iran nuclear issue, to the US dependence on Gulf oil, from the battlefield to the boardroom, the Middle East will impact heavily on the foreign and domestic policy of the 44th President of the United States. At the same time, the choices the next administration makes are likely to shape the future of this region.
Obama has stated that Washington has to "get [its] balance of payments in order", and one key element of his bid to achieve this is the crafting of an energy policy that reduces American dependence on foreign oil - particularly that from the Middle East.
Three months ago, politicians in the US and around the world were blaming Gulf oil producers for the surging price of oil, which hit $147-a-barrel in July, arguing that a lack of supply was holding oil consumers to ransom. Today, with oil back under $70, it is the speculators not the suppliers in the firing line.
While the Gulf's oil producers may have been vindicated on that charge, both candidates have nevertheless put energy policy towards the top of their agendas, taking to the stump with a series of pledges to move away from fossil fuels and towards environmentally-friendly renewable sources - and in McCain's case, nuclear power.
"Nothing is more important than us no longer borrowing $700bn or more from China and sending it to Saudi Arabia - it's mortgaging our children's future," Obama said earlier this month. "I think that in 10 years, we can reduce our dependence so that we no longer have to import oil from the Middle East. I think that's about a realistic timeframe."
Obama's proposal would require that all transportation fuels sold in the US contain 5 percent less carbon by 2015 and 10 percent less carbon by 2020. The estimated impact of the Obama proposal would be dramatic, both in terms of reducing greenhouse gas emissions and reducing dependence on foreign oil. According to one estimate, it would reduce the annual consumption of gasoline derived from foreign oil imports by about 30 billion gallons in 2020.
McCain, meanwhile, is firmly committed to opening up areas of the US where there are believed to be remaining oil deposits, and advocates the building of more nuclear power plants across the country.
"McCain isn't going to revoke the tax break for people who buy hybrid cars," says Adhip Chaudhuri, assistant professor of Economics at Georgetown University School of Foreign Service in Qatar. "But then he's not going to give government subsidies and tax breaks to wind farms and installation of solar power. Obama will do that, in a big way."
Obama's commitment is likely to begin with more money towards research on all non-fossil forms of energy, as well as further action on clean coal.
"The two are committed in principle to the same thing, but Barack Obama is much stronger in his commitment and his announcements of what he will do are much more specific," says Jerry Leach, director of the Prince Alwaleed Bin Talal Bin Abdulaziz Alsaud Centre for American Studies at The American University in Cairo. "Still, both candidates realise that there is going to be a dependence on oil for a long, long time."
Iraq: A country in peril
Obama on Iraq
"John, you like to pretend like the war started in 2007. You talk about the surge. The war started in 2003, and at the time when the war started, you said it was going to be quick and easy. You were wrong"
Immediately upon taking office, Barack Obama would give his Secretary of Defense and military commanders a new mission in Iraq: ending the war. The removal of troops would be phased, redeploying combat brigades from Iraq at a pace of one to two brigades a month.
That would remove them in 16 months, so by the summer of 2010 only a residual force would remain in Iraq to conduct targeted counter-terrorism missions against Al-Qaeda in Iraq and to protect American diplomatic and civilian personnel.
McCain on Iraq
"Senator Obama would have brought our troops home in defeat. I'll bring them home with victory and with honour and that is a fundamental difference"
John McCain has been a leading advocate of the "surge" and the counterinsurgency strategy carried out by General David Petraeus. He argues that the strategy has paid off - from June 2007 through March 2008, sectarian and ethnic violence in Iraq was reduced by 90 percent, while civilian deaths and deaths of coalition forces fell by 70 percent. Senator McCain advocates continuing the counterinsurgency strategy, decrying Senator Obama's plan as similar to the unsuccessful withdrawal strategy of 2006.
The ‘surge' has been hailed as a success, but doubts still remain over the long-term security of the country, as well as the ability of the Iraqi government to keep the peace in a nation rife with violence.
Obama on Iraq
"John, you like to pretend like the war started in 2007. You talk about the surge. The war started in 2003, and at the time when the war started, you said it was going to be quick and easy. You were wrong"
Immediately upon taking office, Barack Obama would give his Secretary of Defense and military commanders a new mission in Iraq: ending the war. The removal of troops would be phased, redeploying combat brigades from Iraq at a pace of one to two brigades a month.
That would remove them in 16 months, so by the summer of 2010 only a residual force would remain in Iraq to conduct targeted counter-terrorism missions against Al-Qaeda in Iraq and to protect American diplomatic and civilian personnel.
McCain on Iraq
"Senator Obama would have brought our troops home in defeat. I'll bring them home with victory and with honour and that is a fundamental difference"
John McCain has been a leading advocate of the "surge" and the counterinsurgency strategy carried out by General David Petraeus. He argues that the strategy has paid off - from June 2007 through March 2008, sectarian and ethnic violence in Iraq was reduced by 90 percent, while civilian deaths and deaths of coalition forces fell by 70 percent. Senator McCain advocates continuing the counterinsurgency strategy, decrying Senator Obama's plan as similar to the unsuccessful withdrawal strategy of 2006.
The ‘surge' has been hailed as a success, but doubts still remain over the long-term security of the country, as well as the ability of the Iraqi government to keep the peace in a nation rife with violence.
READERS' COMMENTS
Disclaimer: The views expressed here by our readers are not necessarily shared by ArabianBusiness.com or its employees.
Obama for sure!!!!
Posted by Tanib, Dubai, United Arab Emirates on Wednesday 29 October 2008 at 15:04 UAE time
Obama will be a breath of fresh air...I only wish I was an American citizen so I could vote for him!!!!
Posted by Tanib, Dubai, United Arab Emirates on Wednesday 29 October 2008 at 15:04 UAE time
Obama will be a breath of fresh air...I only wish I was an American citizen so I could vote for him!!!!
Weird title...
Posted by Jihad Al Jaber, Dubai, UAE on Monday 27 October 2008 at 09:37 UAE time
Democracy is all about leaving the local people of the midle east decide how they would transform their own region.
Posted by Jihad Al Jaber, Dubai, UAE on Monday 27 October 2008 at 09:37 UAE time
Democracy is all about leaving the local people of the midle east decide how they would transform their own region.
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