Big 5's future is tied to what happens around the world

Massive industry exhibitions are usually not the venue where mysteries are contemplated or even solved, but this year's Big 5 may prove to be an exception.

Not once in the past decade or so have The Big 5 exhibitors worried about what was around the corner for the construction industry. Build tall, build wide and simply build, build, build has been the theme in the UAE.

Even this year when organisers began sending out invitations to engineers, developers, contractors, investors, architects and now the leaders in the PMV industry, did few people anticipate the global economic slowdown that enveloped virtually every business from Los Angeles to London to Dubai.

Few of us who have come to rely on the Big 5 as an indicator of the health of the industry could have imagined what was in store for us. Just about everybody was committed to the event long before the credit crunch hit.

But just as we at Construction Week learned earlier this month at our annual conference, the best laid plans of mice and men were, well, thrown to the wind.

Rather than discussing continuing growth, health and safety and the nuts and bolts of recruitment, each and every topic was tinged with how the worsening global economy affected the construction industry.

So this year, will the Big 5 -- always a showcase of optimism, a bit of huckster showmanship and bragging rights to the biggest and best equipment and projects -- be laid low by the smell of doom?

The answer is probably "no". The financial crisis will indeed be on everybody's tongue and there will be plenty of furrowed brows and a few panic attacks among the exhibitors.

But when 50,000 visitors are looking at your product and listening to your fevered sales pitch, deals will be made, stuff will be bought and happy faces will abound.

Without question, this year's Big 5, more likely than not, will be a smashing success. But ...

Next year's event? Maybe not so much. By the time organisers gear up for Big 5 2009, the full extent of the crisis will be apparent. Major players may pull back in a big way, especially since US and UK financial experts do not expect a recovery until the last quarter of 2009. Germany and Japan are already in a recession and France is nearing one.

Given the cyclical nature of these things, Big 5 2010 ought to have the same spring in its step as 2008. But while we ponder the future of large-scale exhibitions like The Big 5, I wonder whether such big-tent operations have seen its day. Will the economic malaise chart a different course for future big shows?

I'm reminded of a conversation I had with features editor Shikha Mishra, who recently returned from Turkey where the France-based Schneider Electric held its own exhibition.

Schneider hired the centrally-located exhibition hall only for its products and pitches. It did not have to compete with 3000 other venders. The company flew in journalists, buyers and clients from around the world. All at a cost equal to what it would have invested in such exhibits as The Big 5.

Granted, one doesn't get to see all of the industry's leaders at the same venue, but those attending Schneider Electric's big show had quality time to put together some pretty good deals.

The chaotic, unpredictable nature of a global economy does have its benefits. As one panelist noted at the Construction Week Conference two weeks ago, a slowdown allows us to re-evaluate and deliberate and figure out ways to do things a bit better.

Rob Wagner is the editor of Construction Week.

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