Oil output could fall by 30m bpd by 2015 - Merrill

OIL SHORTFALL: A Merrill Lynch report says the world must replace the equivalent of Saudi Arabia's production over two years. (Getty Images)

Steep falls in oil production means the world now needed to replace an amount of oil output equivalent to Saudi Arabia’s production every two years, Merrill Lynch said in a research report.

Non-OPEC crude oil production may have already peaked and international oil companies faced the prospect of both younger and older oil fields declining steeply, the firm said in the report released on Wednesday.

It said the cumulative decline of global oil production from today could amount to 30 million barrels per day by 2015.

“As a result of these steep decline rates, the world now needs to replace an amount of oil production equivalent to Saudi Arabia’s production every two years,” said Francisco Blanch, head of global commodities research at Merrill Lynch.

The International Energy Agency expects an increase in non-OPEC output of 51 million barrels per day over the next seven years, the firm said, while it saw production in the range of 49 million to 50 million barrels a day in the same period.

But it said should the credit crunch push decline rates to six percent, non-OPEC production could decline precipitously towards 47 million barrels per day by 2015 from current levels.

It said oil production decline rates were a function of investment rates, as well as the size and age of oil fields. “All these factors point to steeper oil output declines going forward,” said Blanch.

Merrill Lynch said the combined declines in OPEC and non-OPEC countries alike could lead to pressure for higher oil prices as soon as 2010 or 2011, assuming the economic slowdown did not turn into a multi-year event where global oil demand was pushed down structurally for the next five years.

Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest oil exporter, said last month it will take the lead among OPEC members in trying to halt a six-month slide in prices.

Print | Email | Discuss this article

| Share |

READERS' COMMENTS

Renewable Energy is a Myth
Posted by Clifford J. Wirth, Ph.D., State of Veracruz, Mexico on Monday 9 February 2009 at 16:40 UAE time


Google: peak oil impacts

and you will find a website that examines the research on alternative energies.

There is no replacement for oil.

So renewable energy isn't even a consideration then?
Posted by Neil on Thursday 5 February 2009 at 13:39 UAE time


It amazes me how- despite the scientific evidence out there- large scale economies aren't even considering renewable energy (I say this, because the decline in oil output in 6 years time is an apparent crisis according to the article). I know there's a global recession at the moment and that infrastructure typically is planned decades in advance, but come on! There's a global emergency going on. Instead of looking for more oil fields or (ironically) waiting for the artic circles to melt so the oil companies can get to more oil (which is evidence that this making the world inhabitable for human beings just isn't hitting home), why don't these companies start redirecting their resources to renewable energy r&d?

Click here to post a comment

Add your Comment All posts are sent to the administrator for review and are published only after approval. ArabianBusiness.com reserves the right to remove any comment at any time for any reason. Please keep your responses appropriate and on topic. Arabian Business would like to point out that only comments relevant to the story will be published. Any containing personal insults or inappropriate language will not be approved.
Name *
Remember me on this computer
Email *	(Your email address will not be published)
City
Country
Subject *
Comment *
Notify me of further comments
Enter the words above *
Please click post only once - your comment will not be published immediately.

MORE FROM ARABIANBUSINESS.COM