Elections… and beyond: ‘So, was George Bush right?’

More often than not, the above is the question that American, British and Arab friends have been asking me since the Iraqi provincial elections took place on the 31st of January 2009.

They want to know if the former President of the United States was right, whether his declared aspiration of ‘democracy' taking root in Iraq is possible, and whether the Iraqi people support the new status quo in their country after the 2003 war and the toppling of Saddam Hussein's regime.

Frankly, the answer is: it is not about George Bush.

What happens in Iraq is so much more than simply the legacy of the 43rd President of the United States. The decisions taken in 2003, from the dismantling of the Iraqi army to the failure to listen to Iraqis who did not fall in line with the Bush administration, are flawed to say the least and at times unforgivable. However, there is more at stake today than to deliberate the past.

That's what one too many ‘so-called experts' fail to see. During the elections, many voices, particularly Arab, discounted their own importance due to the fact that they were speaking in the continued presence of foreign troops. This, like the failure to fully engage with Iraq, is folly. Iraq's stability is essential for its people, critical for the region and of significant value to the world.

Firstly, the successful transition of power in Iraq in a peaceful manner and without the shedding of blood that has tainted so much of Iraq's recent history, is important for the people of Iraq. The loss of life and livelihood over years of war, dictatorship and sanctions is incalculable and the true costs have yet to be known. Iraq's current levels of violence are by no means acceptable, but they are by far better than levels of the last 4 years.

To pick up the pieces and drive the country forward, those who are in power must be held accountable and must accept losing peacefully when the people of Iraq choose to vote them out.

The provincial elections were the first true test of that, as they are the second round of elections, after the initial round was held in 2005.

If the handover is completed with minimal violence and with the legitimacy of the voting system maintained, then this is a monumental moment.

It sets Iraq on a path of stability and gives its people faith in the importance of their own individual choices; a self-determination that is key to pulling the country forward.

Secondly, the peaceful transition of power is an important step in the long process of foreign military disengagement from Iraq.

While it is unclear when exactly the last foreign soldier will leave Iraq's territories, self-determination through ballot boxes rather than raising arms is one of several crucial elements in this process.

The preliminary results vary from one province to another, however, the main outcomes have seen a support for Prime Minister Nouri Al Maliki for what he promises in imposing the rule of law, strengthening of the central government and the armed forces. This is a platform that proves popular with war-weary Iraqis who want a united, strong and sovereign country.

While the results of the provincial elections and the maturing of the political process after so many tumultuous years have given many Iraqis a moment of hope, that hope is fragile.

Many challenges lie ahead for Iraq in 2009, and as every year, this one is crucial. There are two more sets of elections, local in the summer and national in the winter, and a referendum on the Status of Forces Agreement with the United States. However, these also mean a succession of transitions in unknown conditions.

The ghost of war and fear of reprisal from those left out of the political powerhouse is never far away.

Moreover, elections and referendums are simply not enough. The long-term path to stability and strength is hindered as long as Iraq's national institutions remain weak; the constitution has been up for amendment since its conception, crucial legislation is stalled in the parliament and corruption is an ill that everyone admits plagues Iraq but very little is done to quell it. Public services are at a disgraceful level to say the least.

Yet the significance of an electoral process is that Iraqi politicians now realise that they will be held accountable at the ballot box.

The hope is that they will move to improve the lives of the people they are meant to serve, for self-preservation if nothing else.

Iraqis pulled themselves from the brink of a disastrous civil war and have opted to remain as one country in spite of so many attempts to break their will. The question for the future is not whether Mr Bush was right or wrong; that is for historians to debate.

The imperative is to deal with the here and now. The question for Baghdad is whether the Iraqi political establishment will tackle these intricate problems and prove that their people were right to trust in them and go out in the millions once more to endorse the political system.

The question for Washington is whether President Barack Obama realises the danger of Iraq falling back into a viscous cycle of violence is still very much present. He holds the responsibility of not letting that happen on his watch. In four years time, it will be his Iraq policy that that will be questioned.

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