A blessing in disguise

David Camp.

It’s 2007, and the world is flying high. In Dubai’s development pipeline are a range of visionary mega projects including AED 235 billion (US $64 billion) plans for 10 theme parks and related resorts in Dubailand, along with a half-dozen other major attractions, all to be built within 10 years and with a target attendance of more than 30 million visitors.

Nothing like it had ever been built before, and certainly not with such speed. Might this grand plan have worked if the economic boom had continued?

With so much money still around in 2007, it did seem possible that the projects could get built. However, this would have resulted in an oversupply and they would not all have thrived.

To consider the potential for Dubai’s attractions industry we examined attendance levels at successful attraction destinations around the world in light of their total resident and tourist markets.

The data showed that Paris and Las Vegas draw around 0.3 attraction visits per person per year, while Los Angeles and the Gold Coast achieve around 0.7 theme park visits per head.

Orlando tops the charts at more than 1.5 visits per person in a good year. These figures had been relatively stable for a number of years despite the booming economies around the world.

Orlando was Dubai’s objective, but we have to remember that it took Orlando around 30 years to reach that level of visitation. It is home to the Disney parks (which draw 70% of the city’s major theme park visits) and Dubai has been unable to lure Disney.

The climate, distance to Dubai from major source markets (and associated travel costs), high level of business tourism and a range of other factors suggest that the performance of destinations like Los Angeles and the Gold Coast are more realistic targets for Dubai to aim for.

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