Outbreak

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The first known carrier of the swine flu virus was Edgar Hernandez, a four-year-old boy from Mexico. More than 3,000 people are now thought to have been infected with the virus.

Hundreds are dead, and thousands more are thought to have been infected across the globe. Is the Gulf prepared for a swine flu pandemic, and how grave is the risk?

Wide-eyed and shy, Edgar Hernandez looks like an ordinary four-year-old boy from his eastern Mexican village. Two weeks ago he was. Now, he is the centre of global attention after being named by Mexico's health minister as one of the first known carriers of a deadly strain of influenza that has erupted across the world.

His hometown, the village of La Gloria in the state of Veracruz, less than five miles away from a pig farm that raises close to one million animals a year, has become ‘ground zero' and the suspected epicentre of a swine flu epidemic that has now thought to have infected more than 3,000 people.

Across the world, governments have swung into action in a bid to prevent a pandemic. In Mexico, panic has reached fever pitch. The government has ordered schools and universities to shut while Mexico City's traffic-snarled streets, usually heaving with tourists, now resemble a ghost town.

The panic rippled quickly around the world. Since the first death was confirmed in Mexico on Apr 12, it is thought swine flu has claimed at least another 150 victims, mostly healthy adults not usually considered vulnerable to the influenza virus.

Cases have since been confirmed in the UK, Spain, Canada, New Zealand and, in the Middle East, Israel; among other countries. The US has declared a national public health emergency, while the chief global health body, The World Health Organisation (WHO) has ratcheted up the alert level for the outbreak from phase three to an unprecedented phase five. It is, said UN secretary general Ban Ki-moon, teetering on a pandemic.

Already, the blue surgical masks dotting international airports are all too reminiscent of the lethal 2003 SARS outbreak, which infected 8,000 people and killed close to 800, and the avian flu (H5N1 virus), which has infected 421 people since 2003, and killed 61 percent of its victims.

Yet, swine flu is different. For one, it seems to respond to antiviral medications such as Tamiflu and Relenza. All victims outside Mexico have, to date, made a full recovery. Experts concur the virus originated in pigs and mutated into a form that jumped to humans. Unlike avian flu, however, which rarely passes from person to person, this H1N1 influenza strain seems to cross easily, ruling out any containment measures.

"We are very, very concerned," said WHO spokesman Thomas Abraham at an emergency briefing by the agency. "We have what appears to be a novel virus and it has spread from human to human. It's all hands on deck at the moment."

Countries within the GCC did not wait to be told twice. Health ministers scrambled to attend a hastily convened meeting in Doha last Saturday, to firm up plans to fight the potential pandemic. A second meeting is to be held this week, to coordinate screenings at air and sea ports between the countries.

The UAE was one of the first Gulf states off the block. At an emergency press briefing held on April 28, minister of health Humaid Mohammed Obeid Al Qutami told reporters the country is reaping the benefit of lessons learned from the avian flu scare. Fronting the national pandemic plan is the Avian Influenza Emergency Committee, which was set up in the wake of the outbreak.

"We have been planning this for three years," said Dr Mahmoud Fikri, executive director for health policies affairs at the ministry, told Arabian Business. "We are absolutely ready."

The ministry said it was awaiting instructions from the WHO before switching into crisis mode, but said it has already warned the country's airports and hospitals to be alert for flu-like symptoms.

"What we don't want to do is create a panic," Al Qutami said. "Our key message is that the country is virus-free and that everything is ok."

The ministry has stockpiled a "good number" of antiviral medications, including Tamiflu, he said, which has proved effective on patients in outbreak areas. However, he was unable to name the exact number of doses available.

Dubai Health Authority has said it has one million Tamiflu capsules in stock, enough to treat around 40,000 cases. A source from the Health Authority Abu Dhabi (HAAD) told Arabian Business it also had doses on standby, and that priority would be given to frontline medical workers. While not a vaccine, antivirals such as Tamiflu can lessen the strength and duration of the flu symptoms.

The UAE government has stopped short of issuing a direct travel ban, but Majid Al Mansour, secretary general of Abu Dhabi's environmental agency, which has consulted on the influenza alert, urged residents to postpone non-essential travel to Mexico and other affected areas.

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