Mr Brightside

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Eventually he confides: "I have a general view. But will property prices return to sky high values, and will we have flippers running around again? I don't think so. I think prices will recover somewhat. I think in the long run they will recover."

That said, he will admit that the bank, which according to Al Shaksy has a balance sheet somewhere between $5bn and $6bn, has become more "cautious" recently about lending.

Global economic recovery on the horizon?

CEO Middle East puts it to Al Shaksy that, depending on who you listen to, the world is either on the brink of economic recovery, or it is staring down the barrel of a seminal shift in the way things are done, one that might take fifteen years to work through the system. When does he, head of a bank which must take a position on this sort of thing, think things will return to normal?

He says: "What is normal? Because we were not normal. This is the issue. We were not normal. We were totally out of touch with reality. By we I mean the globe. Dubai has the least to do with this mess. We are victims of what has happened.

"I think that a lot of positive steps have been taken worldwide and I think the world leaders are saying that the slowdown is slowing. So I think there has been a deceleration, which is an indication that things are bottoming out, and hopefully we will see a healthier trend. Now I don't know how steep that trend is going to be."

So talk of a fifteen-year recovery is wide of the mark? Al Shaksy starts to look annoyed. He says: "You know obviously there are people out there who have crystal balls that I don't have. Look, one thing I have learnt is that economists are many times very, very off. I studied economics. I will tell you, a lot of people are questioning some of the fundamental models today, but that is a different story.

But to tell me that people will have to wait fifteen years to recover, well, someone must have a crystal ball somewhere. I am not saying it is wrong, I am saying I have no clue. Something has hit us that we have never, ever been hit with. And you still have people out there with the courage, actually I would use a different word for it, to sit out there and pretend that they know what is going happen.

Well if they know what is going to happen, why didn't they tell us this was going to happen? Some people said they predicted it, yes, because they have always been predicting it, for the last 50 years."

In an attempt to change the subject, CEO Middle East tells Al Shaksy that while researching Dubai Bank ahead of the interview, it became apparent that there is talk in some quarters that various banks in the UAE may be on the brink of merging, in order to kick on during these tough times. Asked about it, Al Shaksy again looks incredulous. "There is talk about Dubai Bank merging?" he asks.

CEO Middle East tells him there is, on the internet. On the internet there is speculation that Dubai Bank might merge with Dubai Islamic Bank. This gets short shrift.

"No one has spoken to me about this. I have absolutely no idea about what you are saying. And I mean that. Everything is written on the internet. I mean they write a lot of things about Brad Pitt and Angelina Jolie, too. It doesn't mean it is true."

So it is unthinkable?

"Nothing is unthinkable. I keep telling everyone who will listen, nothing is unthinkable. But we don't go to sleep at night worrying about the earthquake that might happen. Whether it is good or bad, if it has to happen, it has to happen the right way. Consolidation is a good buzzword, but is a buzzword. If you consolidate then you need to ensure that you are creating value and not destroying value."

How about with other banks? Has Al Shaksy heard talk of other banks merging? Apparently not.

He says: "I hate speculating without knowledge. If I have solid knowledge about something, I will respond to you and give you my thoughts. If I don't, I will say I don't know.

At the moment I have no knowledge of any merger taking place, of any bank in Dubai or Abu Dhabi or elsewhere. Now, is consolidation a good thing? Well, it could be good, if you are putting together the right entities for the right purpose. Are there opportunities to consolidate? Probably. I haven't studied it."

We're back to the loathing of speculation. It's frustrating for an interview, but probably ideal for running a bank safely. Al Shaksy laughs at this: "In this day and age you have got to be really daft to put your neck on the line. I am talking about anyone sensible. Anyone sensible will have a lot of difficulty predicting how we will emerge from this situation, and how fast."

He pauses and thinks about what he has just said. And then he adds, repeating it to make sure I have it down right: "If you think that you know when you actually don't know, you have a big problem."

That's not a bad motto for a bank. Or for anyone.

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