Arab states gloat at Iran strife, but wary of its spread

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Protestors claim that the presidential elections in Iran were rigged.

"The site of public demonstrations by the thousands against their leaders... troubles all Arab leaders," AbuKhalil said, pointing to the lack of popular democracy on a par with that of Iran in most of the Arab countries. "Arab regimes may also fear that if the Iranian regime feels cornered and pressured, it may lash out, and Saudi Arabia may be the first to feel the wrath of the regime."

There are already hints of what that could mean.

Iran's airforce began exercises last week in the Gulf and the Sea of Oman. Iran has the strongest navy in Gulf, deploying ships to international waters such as the Gulf of Aden near Yemen and has carried out numerous long-range missile tests.

Last week Iran's "Supreme Leader" Ali Khamenei came out openly in favour of Ahmadinejad and his nuclear energy policy, which the West and Gulf Arab countries fear will allow Iran to become a nuclear weapons power. Tehran denies this intention.

A Western diplomat in the Gulf said this would reduce the chances of Iran achieving the rapprochement with Washington so feared by Riyadh.

"The status quo suits everyone to a degree," he said.

Ahmadinejad's re-election, analysts said, would comfort many Israelis and some Arabs who have long sought international action against Iran and had been concerned by US President Barack Obama's offer of direct talks.

Saudi Arabia, whose absolute monarchy relies on US military support and the backing of hardline Sunni clerics, fears Iran could win recognition from Washington as a regional power in return for checks on its nuclear programme.

But there are also signs that Arabs who benefit from Ahmadinejad's strident backing for groups fighting what he depicts as neo-colonialist forces - namely Washington and Israel - are getting nervous over what may happen if he is forced out.

"[Hezbollah] genuinely are concerned. Ahmadinejad has clearly been a source of inspiration and support for Hezbollah over the last four years," said Lebanese analyst Oussama Safa.

The group's deputy leader Naim Kassem has backed Iran's charge of foreign interference and its system of clerical rule.

"We see America and Britain and some of the European states getting involved in the events in Iran. There is an attempt to provoke turmoil, to inflate the problem for foreign interests," he told Lebanon's New TV this week.

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