Bring on Ramadan

Wow, has it been quiet recently. The last eight weeks have seen the usually lengthy process of designing and building take on a snail's pace as a result of, or to accommodate, the droves of residents heading out for their summer holidays.

Expats seem to be in search of an annual holiday amid cooler climes, while GCC nationals seem to be looking for that last bit of relaxation and family fun before the unusually early Ramadan kicks in. Regardless of why or when they're leaving, one thing is certain, all of them seem to be looking forward to that ubiquitous phrase that seems to be on everyone's lips: "Post-Ramadan Push".

The first time I heard it was back in December ‘08. The credit crunch had yet to really take hold in the Gulf but some were beginning to struggle. Still this phrase remained. People in the industry uttered then and continue to utter now a phrase that, as if by some stroke of a magical money wand, will allow people to forget their financial woes and start building buildings again. There's a possibility that they're right.

Consider this: Ramadan is coming very early this year. Ramadan ‘09 will begin on or around the 21st of August and finish on or around the 19th of September. That is approximately 10 days earlier than in ‘08; three weeks earlier than in ‘07; and more than a month earlier than in ‘06 or ‘05.

Why is this timing significant? Here's why. Muslim friends and colleagues tell me that Ramadan is an incredibly spiritual time in Islam; it's a month-long reaffirmation and renewal of one's commitment to his/her faith. For these reasons, Ramadan is a time of great personal reflection and spiritual and familial bonding. To be sure, it is a time of sacrifice, not a time for focusing on profit margins or personal gain.

For the first time in more than a decade, Ramadan and Eid al-Fitr-the celebration of breaking the fast-completely finish before the start of the fourth quarter of the calendar year.

Now, this is where a unique situation presents itself: First, you've got a large-scale celebratory mood following what is usually a very difficult time of year for much of the population. Second, the building industry cannot afford to completely write off 2009 and we cannot ride the post-celebration buzz into the new year like in years past.

Third, the GCC was spared for much of the first year of the crisis due to a relatively small population and enormous per capita wealth. These same factors are what will allow it to recover much more quickly than places with larger populations and larger state-reliance on consumer wealth.

Fourth, record-breaking exhibitions. The 2009 versions of Saudi Build, Cityscape, Index and Big 5 all fall post-Ramadan and all are projecting larger-than-ever attendance. This tells me that the industry is healthy, but cautious. It tells me that people are waiting for the right projects; the projects that are designed and built with thought, care and common sense.

Reports of strengthening markets in North America and Asia are building confidence and, in this region, everyone who is anyone is projecting that post-Ramadan push. If the credit crisis illustrates confidence lost, perhaps post-Ramadan we'll see the power of confidence gained.

Jeff Roberts is the group editor of ITP Business' design tiles.

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