Cityscape 2009 - a reality check

So Cityscape Dubai is almost upon us again, the annual bunfight for the region’s real estate and construction players.

As far as I can make out, the organisers haven’t gone for a catchy tagline this year, but if they had, ‘what a difference a year makes’ would have had a ring to it. The excess of last year’s event was almost Bacchanalian.

The stands were jaw-droppingly over the top, major A-list celebrities were out in force, and the scale of the projects being announced were, well, they were mind-bending.

Nakheel said it was going to build a tower that would be over three times the height of the Eiffel Tower. Another company said it would be spending about $100bn on a project called Jumeirah Gardens.

While Antonio Banderas and Michael Douglas flashed alligator smiles and air-kissed anyone who strayed close enough, anything went. At the time, a good game in the media tent was trying to work out how several of the announced mega-projects could be constructed without seeing the Sheikh Zayed motorway closed for several months.

Boringly, those days are over now, and this year’s Cityscape will be a more sober affair, the thrill of fantasy replaced by the dull, hard-faced glare of reality.

Emaar and Nakheel said they weren’t going to turn up this year – and who could blame them? They said they were too busy trying to get their existing work finished in these straitened times to be announcing new projects or listening to others announcing theirs.

But last week, bravely, they changed their minds, perhaps realising that the event would be viewed as a flop without their presence and that it would provide a wonderful opportunity for contractors and customers to meet the company face-to-face and to air any concerns they might have.

At the time of writing, the feeling among the industry analysts Arabian Buiness talks to seems to be that nothing will happen at Cityscape – that the market is still very depressed and will remain so for some time. Are they right?

Certainly the property industry here, as it is almost everywhere in the world, is characterised by the masses of people with their hands in their pockets on its sidelines. These people, largely, have, of course, caused liquidity to cease.

But if you believe that Dubai will recover from the impact caused by the global recession, then you must also believe that when these people come back to the market they will do so in a rush. Their collective confidence will become self-fulfilling.

And who is to say that that won’t happen sooner rather than later? Were there really no fundamentals beyond collective hysteria to support last year’s property prices? And if there were, have they really changed that much in twelve months? Perhaps there will be more speculators at Cityscape 09 who believe that market prices right now represent the buying opportunity of a lifetime than anyone is expecting.

Arabtec Construction boss Thomas Barry doesn’t think Dubai will ever hit the heights of 2008 again, and he said as much last week. The Gulf Research Centre’s leading economist Eckart Woertz has said previously that people who bought apartments in Dubai in the summer of last year might have to wait as long as fifteen years to get their money back.

But there are others who are more optimistic. Cityscape organiser Rohan Marwaha says that although exhibitor numbers at the event are down 30 percent, he is confident there will be some market activity next week, with a focus on quality rather than quantity.

He thinks this year’s Cityscape may be quieter than last year’s, but that the good times will be back again by next year. Do you? See you there.

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READERS' COMMENTS

to Paolo
Posted by steph, dubai, UAE on Wednesday 7 October 2009 at 13:26 UAE time


I agree with you, when it started to be bad, everybody realises investors had no protection at all. i haven't seen my money yet and i don't think i ever will. everyday we get even more surprises from the banks, developpers etc... I don't think anybody will regain confidence anytime soon, good luck with Cityscape !

TO david
Posted by Luis, Dubai, UAE on Wednesday 7 October 2009 at 10:21 UAE time


Man, you are funny. the original poster remarks are not only reasonable, but you manage to raise the level of the posts in AB. Alan Greenspan is no longer the chief of the Federal Reserve. That one was too good to pass.

About the depth of your insights.... well little can be added.

The structural issues with banks have not been fixed, there are still many banks who are too big to fail, and banks are back into the risk oaded practices that got us in the mess.

If you can address any of the points, by all means do. And try to spend a little bit less time watching soccer and drinking beer and a little bit more educating yourself about a crisis you will end up paying.

Arabian Business' 'Spot Poll'
Posted by Sceptic..., Dubai, Dubai on Tuesday 6 October 2009 at 20:28 UAE time


Thought I'd comment here because I don't see anywhere else to put it...but who on earth is voting that this years Cityscape is "bigger and better!" It has a 5% weighting.

Anyone who has been to cityscape in the last 2days will know it has been almost deserted other than for exhibition staff etc

Its a flop...

Wonder if Cityscape staff are busy voting all day to make the Poll ratios better (?)...just a thought

To David Bhattacharjie...don't you research anything???
Posted by Sceptic..., Dubai, Dubai on Tuesday 6 October 2009 at 20:22 UAE time


David Maninders points are on the ball...If you think they are way off the mark then you really do need to do some research.

Look up these economists on U-Tube for archived TV reports:
Peter Schiff
Jim Rodgers
Gerald Celente
Max kieser
Mike Small (Dubai Based)
Bob Chapman

All these economists predicted the Credit Crunch/crisis well before it hit. They were scorned and laughed at but...they were 100% right.

If you think everything in the garden is rosey then I feel sorry for you. The writing is on the wall...ignoring it won't make it go away David

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