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Discuss this article (12 Comments)Top Mideast business figure warns of 'second wave'
by This email address is being protected from spam bots, you need Javascript enabled to view it on Sunday, 18 October 2009
ECONOMIC WARNING: Shafik Gabr has warned of a "second wave" to hit the economies of the GCC region. (Getty Images)
One of the Middle East’s leading business figures has warned the region faces a “second wave” of economic contraction in 2010.
“I think we will have a difficult 2010 in the Middle East,” ARTOC Group chairman Shafik Gabr told Arabian Business in an interview in Cairo, Egypt.
“Except in certain places in the Gulf, at first this part of the world did not feel the impact [of the slowdown] like in the US and Europe,” he said.
“I think the rest of the Middle East is now witnessing what I call the ‘second wave’ of the contraction where FDI is coming down, markets are tightening and consumer spending is less.
“In Egypt, for example, in the first two quarters of 2009 we didn’t feel anything; the economy was going fine. The waves hadn’t really reached our shores,” he added.
“It was after the summer that we started to see things happen.”
Gabr is chairman and managing director of ARTOC Group for Investment and Development, a multi–disciplined investment holding company headquartered in Egypt and with assets under management of $1.1bn.
He is also chairman and a founding member of Egypt’s International Economic Forum, serves on the International Business Council of the World Economic Forum in Geneva, and was previously the chairman of the Arab Business Council.
READERS' COMMENTS
Disclaimer: The views expressed here by our readers are not necessarily shared by ArabianBusiness.com or its employees.
Everybody knows ...
Posted by Realist, Dubai, UAE on Monday 19 October 2009 at 12:25 UAE time
... as the song of Leonard Cohen says. Listen to it.
Spot on Asif, payan, Kumar, the gentleman from Mirdif.
The second wave is coming, let's see Q1 2010.
Posted by Realist, Dubai, UAE on Monday 19 October 2009 at 12:25 UAE time
... as the song of Leonard Cohen says. Listen to it.
Spot on Asif, payan, Kumar, the gentleman from Mirdif.
The second wave is coming, let's see Q1 2010.
add up the figures
Posted by His Excellency Dr Paul, Dubai, UAE on Monday 19 October 2009 at 11:16 UAE time
UK house prices down 20%, US house prices down 30% - construction some 5% of GDP - result - overall economic contraction in those nations.
Dubai house prices down 50%+, construction some 40% of GDP, more than half projects cancelled or suspended, off-plan sales model dead in the water, reduction in population, banks holding massive loan portfolios with massive debts, government debt twice GDP - result - nothing much at all. Or that's what they appear to be telling us.
Anyone who believes this and positions themself accordingly is going to take a bath they'll never forget. Assuming they didn't lose everything already after listening to the same officials who assured them 'Dubai property will not crash'.
Posted by His Excellency Dr Paul, Dubai, UAE on Monday 19 October 2009 at 11:16 UAE time
UK house prices down 20%, US house prices down 30% - construction some 5% of GDP - result - overall economic contraction in those nations.
Dubai house prices down 50%+, construction some 40% of GDP, more than half projects cancelled or suspended, off-plan sales model dead in the water, reduction in population, banks holding massive loan portfolios with massive debts, government debt twice GDP - result - nothing much at all. Or that's what they appear to be telling us.
Anyone who believes this and positions themself accordingly is going to take a bath they'll never forget. Assuming they didn't lose everything already after listening to the same officials who assured them 'Dubai property will not crash'.
Fascinating
Posted by watching&learning, Manama on Monday 19 October 2009 at 11:08 UAE time
The chasm between what the Private Businessmen and Gov't PR mouthpieces is extraordinary. Who to believe indeed. Always comes back to the same philosophical question: Que Bono? (Who benefits?)
Positive Spin benefits the rich, because it's designed to re-assure the working, spending middle class to start spending again, to start dreaming and fueling their dreams (good luck acheiving them in this political/economic/environmental/social climate.)
The lack of transparency, the lack of an objective means by which to measure the integrity of some of these statements/ spokespeople makes it very hard indeed to take the region seriously. We are being re-assured by cronies and yes men, in a futile and out of date attempt to 'make' the market.
Well, their excellencies must forgive us lowly commoners, but some of us have coped on, and we don't believe their comments at face value any more. Their baseless and misleading confidence has cost so many of us careers, livelihoods, happiness, and in some cases, lives.
Posted by watching&learning, Manama on Monday 19 October 2009 at 11:08 UAE time
The chasm between what the Private Businessmen and Gov't PR mouthpieces is extraordinary. Who to believe indeed. Always comes back to the same philosophical question: Que Bono? (Who benefits?)
Positive Spin benefits the rich, because it's designed to re-assure the working, spending middle class to start spending again, to start dreaming and fueling their dreams (good luck acheiving them in this political/economic/environmental/social climate.)
The lack of transparency, the lack of an objective means by which to measure the integrity of some of these statements/ spokespeople makes it very hard indeed to take the region seriously. We are being re-assured by cronies and yes men, in a futile and out of date attempt to 'make' the market.
Well, their excellencies must forgive us lowly commoners, but some of us have coped on, and we don't believe their comments at face value any more. Their baseless and misleading confidence has cost so many of us careers, livelihoods, happiness, and in some cases, lives.
Second Wave is reality
Posted by Bob, Sharjah on Monday 19 October 2009 at 07:17 UAE time
I am loving this. Mr. Gabr is spot on and to those of you out there who want to believe what the GCC finance chiefs say about the recession being over: are you all really that ignorant and/or naive? They (GCC finance chiefs) just talk the talk but do not walk the walk.
Posted by Bob, Sharjah on Monday 19 October 2009 at 07:17 UAE time
I am loving this. Mr. Gabr is spot on and to those of you out there who want to believe what the GCC finance chiefs say about the recession being over: are you all really that ignorant and/or naive? They (GCC finance chiefs) just talk the talk but do not walk the walk.
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