Saatchi & Saatchi chief warns of global unrest in 2010

2010 WARNING: Saatchi & Saatchi global chief Kevin Roberts has warned of mass social disorder next year. (Bloomberg Images)

Saatchi & Saatchi global CEO Kevin Roberts has warned of mass social disorder in 2010, with “more violence, more drugs, more alcohol abuse, more crime” being the next phase of the global economic crisis.

In an interview with Arabian Business magazine to be published on Sunday, Roberts dismissed the predictions of growth next year by the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Instead, he warns that “the bad times are here".

He said: “It will be tough next year because the stimulus packages are not stimulating. They are not working. The social costs will go through the roof. 70 million unemployed means more violence, more drugs, more alcohol abuse, more crime. It is already happening. You will see a social crisis in urban developed markets.

“Think Chicago, London, Mumbai. 20% of 16 year olds don’t find a job so they don’t spend. They get pissed off because they believe they deserve it so they will take it….People will lose hope and turn to drugs and violence against weaker people, their wives and children.”

He added: “This is not a recession. This is a reframing of the world. Consumers are never going to go back to spending more than they earn. This was fundamentally a problem of consumers saving nothing and spending what they didn’t earn. Recession is over but the only people that can borrow money are people that have money, and they are the people that don’t need it.”

But despite his concerns for the global economy, Roberts was more positive on Dubai, saying the emirate has done spectacular things on “job creation” in the past few years.

Last month, the IMF said growth in Arab oil exporters was set to slow to 0.7 percent this year but would rebound in 2010 to grow by 5.2 percent on rising oil revenue.

Saudi Arabia and five of its neighbours in the world's biggest oil-exporting region are likely to post fiscal surpluses amounting to 5.3 percent of gross domestic product this year, compared with 27.4 percent of GDP in 2008, the IMF said.

Next year's surpluses will amount to 10.4 percent of the region's GDP.

Real GDP growth in 2009 for the Gulf - including the UAE, Kuwait, Qatar, Oman and Bahrain - would fall from an estimated 6.4 percent last year, the IMF added.

In a wide ranging interview, Roberts – who heads up 7,000 staff and is a respected speaker at international conferences, also took a swipe at the region’s advertising industry, saying that advertising award ceremonies have been “a shambles"

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READERS' COMMENTS

You are right Julia but!!!
Posted by Puma, Abu Dhabi, UAE on Sunday 15 November 2009 at 15:05 UAE time


The problems created by USA alone should be sorted out by USA alone.... USA should stop messing around in the world and on top of everything, when the mess is created, then they expect the internationl powers to clean it...

I am not sure if USA has any procedure for accountability or not, but if it has then they should try both the "Bushes" for the crimes they have committed and not only messed up half of the world but also USA itself!!!!

Prediction by Satchi and Satchi CEO
Posted by Raj P Gopal, Dubai, UAE on Sunday 15 November 2009 at 09:41 UAE time


Communism failed when the basic needs of the majority of the people were met and scope for more prosperity for the same majority was non-existent!
Now Capitalism has failed with the GREED of the elite class of bankers, stock brokers, financial experts (manipulators), business owners & managers gambling away public money in collusion with those at the helm of affairs in Governments (especially the ones in developed world). Even pension funds were not spared! Health care is reeling under the iron grip of Insurance companies wanting to make more money. And Governments are pumping money into the hands of the very same people who wrecked everything.
India may be hiring but 500 million Indians go to bed hungry every day. The monstrous greed of politicians and bureaucrats is fawning violence beyond control (Naxalites, Maoists and many such groups).
May be the world is ready for a new 'ISM' that will address grave issues like health care, local employment, conserving precious natural resources like water and restoring some much needed human qualities!

social turmoil in 2010
Posted by JULIA, orlando, USA on Thursday 12 November 2009 at 17:54 UAE time


this is fault of the following

irresponsible govts failing to lobby for poulation control and family planning.

corruption in govts- so that expenditure/revenue is diverted to govt officils instead of spending on develpment to create jobs

mismanagement of gov expenditure and dev plans due to incomptent govt officials

wars and civil wars and riots and strikes and violence eats away wealth.

as for US govt sooner it realize its limitations better for American economy and American people- do not try to be world policeman.
for international problems - let all world powers join hand and contribute instead of US alone bearing the load and burden

To Jessy
Posted by Research, Dubai, UAE on Thursday 12 November 2009 at 16:34 UAE time


I think you're forgetting that "downward lifesyle adjustments" are the hardest of all. And that's setting aside the truly facile argument that 'just because people go back to being poor, doesn't mean they'll be any more violent than they used to be."

The psychology of poverty is similar to prison: many people would take extreme measures to avoid going back.

Either way, it's not a boring return to poverty for some, but rather that MILLIONS of new people will be plunged into poverty who weren't there before. And that's going to happen in places where there where poverty wasn't so prevalent. That's why Roberts refers to a sense of entitlement.

So what about the tens of millions of people who were already poor--yes, they actually CAN get poorer and more desperate.

"A hungry mob is an angry mob"

The urban dynamic to which Roberts refers cannot be disputed. The inner city violence that was rampant in the US during the 70s and 80s could easily rebound much more intensely in the context of spiking poverty in those areas.

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