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A correction in Dubai’s real estate market could be exacerbated by a mismatch between demand and supply, with the bulk of demand being for more affordable properties than the ones that are coming on stream.
“Currently the supply is geared more towards the high end segment in an environment where prices have appreciated rapidly, so it’s like a double whammy,” Shuaa Capital real estate analyst Roy Cherry said.
“Seventy percent of Dubai’s population has been priced out and there are very few products that do target the low and mid income segment, which is effectively where the bulk of demand is.”
The city will continue to offer opportunities for developers who are able to target those income brackets.
“Not everyone in Dubai can afford a four million dirham property,” he said.
Shuaa Capital is forecasting a correction in Dubai property prices, beginning in 2009 and continuing into 2010.
Cherry distinguishes between the Dubai and Abu Dhabi market, with the former being “more complicated” due to the mismatch in supply and demand and project delays that have helped inflate prices.
Abu Dhabi is currently a more predictable play: demand is soaring and is likely to outstrip supply over the next three to four years, although negative sentiment in Dubai could have a contagion effect.
Both markets have seen a lot of speculative activity in recent years, but with less supply coming on stream, the impact of a correction will be smaller in the capital.
The emirate is also making significant investments in affordable housing. The Abu Dhabi government has recently granted Aldar over 10 million square metres of land for low income housing projects.
“I think overall the Abu Dhabi market is a healthy market…and I think Abu Dhabi companies will continue to do well. Not only because of the excess demand, but also because companies like Aldar Properties are already initiating work on low income housing projects with government encouragement,” Cherry said.
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