As an analyst we are always looking for external market indicators that could preview a market shift over the coming months. Like an environmentalist looking at the spread of microbacteria and plankton as a precursor to establish whether to predict a bumper fishing stock, I believe that signs of mid-sector consumer economic confidence can be established if normal buyers, not investors, are beginning to spend again.

Along with Black Sea Beluga, second houses, five-star holidays and Ferraris, the desire to buy a yacht is one of the first things to be mothballed in times of economic downturn. As one potential client returned to the emphatic ‘lots of deals to be had’ sales line: “I have just had to let 200 of my staff go and am fighting to save my company, the livlihood of my remaining staff and ensure my family has a future. I’m afraid spending on my leisure time is the last thing I want to be doing!”

Throughout the early months of the year, this was certainly the case across the yacht sales and charter markets around the world, with Dubai being the quietest it had been for years. Not only were there very few reported sales, charters or activities, but in January and February very few owners were even using their yachts, a combination of cold climate and cold economics souring the experience.

Always the high-point of the UAE boating market, the Dubai International Boat Show in March followed the disastrous sales record of 2008 (contrary to many mass media reports), but did see a change in the size of boat being sold, with far more interest in the 40ft and below market, mostly bought without the need for credit, rather than the 40-60ft market that was booming last year.

Another dip in interest continued through the following month, but since May many brokers have been reporting a stark resurgence in client leads, including a number of yacht brokers moving stock they had been trying to sell for many months. While many of these boats were parted with at not much more than a price that covered running cost for some brokers, the fact that the public are again buying must indicate an increased confidence in long term commitment to staying in Dubai, must it not?

“In any changing market it is vital for business to likewise adapt and attempt to foresee how best to suit the changing needs of its client,” explained Ross Gill, General Manager of Hatteras Collection United Arab Emirates. “This is easier for some businesses over others, depending on their commitment and interest in the industry they work in. At the end of the day, our clients are all business leaders themselves, they are all up against the same family pressures, time commitments and lifestyle choices we all are. In this respect the yachting industry is no different from any other luxury goods market. What then swings the decision is the relationship and manner in which a company relates, communicates and deals with its customers. That is what makes the difference when times are hard for all.”

Instead of the cash-rich Russian or young party-orientated entrepreneur, brokers are seeing a different demographic of buyer returning to confidently invest in their leisure time. One potential client claimed that he had never previously been interested in a yacht, as he saw it to be a waste of money: “but in these times, I’d prefer my money to be safely invested in something that I can enjoy, rather than losing money in the stock market or housing slide” he joked.

This position is one supported by Ross Gill:

“In today’s market cash is king, but never buy a boat because it’s cheaper than the one next to it. The price of the boat is not its real value. The space, usability and how much you, your friends or the family really enjoy it is the true value, a cheaper boat that you don’t use is a far worse asset then the slightly more expensive one used every weekend.”

Another trend coming to the fore is the increasing number of GCC nationals showing an interest in yachting as opposed to their predominant water-based past-time of fishing. Yachting as a leisure pursuit has never been high on the agenda of Emiratis in comparison to the other GCC nations, but there is a very gradual indication that this may be about to change - which will do a lot for increasing the baseline perception and acceptance of yachting.

As Dubai and Abu Dhabi both await further marina space to come available towards the end of the year, Dubai-based brokers are finding that clients outside of the Emirates are more than willing to travel for their purchase:

“I’ve been having increased interest from Bahrain, Qatar and Kuwait,” explained Chris Macky, owner of Formula dealer Macky Marine. ” Not only do they seem a lot more knowledgeable about boating and the quality of boat build, but they are also prepared to travel to Dubai to see the product and follow through with their deals.”

One dealer in Dubai Marina Yacht Club made three sales last week, two to Kuwait, which has certainly given the dealer a spring in his step before entering the traditionally slow summer period.

“It’s certainly changed my attitude,” he said, “and gives me hope that there is a perception change within the market that the Middle East is still a safe place to do business, to invest in and to stay with the family. The GCC market is very different from the established markets of Europe, Australia and the US, it is very reactive andthis is what will rescue it far in advance of other countries.”

While it is certainly not all ‘plain sailing’ for any marine company in Dubai, the fact there is sales movement indicates confidence in an otherwise tempestuous world. And thinking about it, if everything else is going wrong, where better to escape to than the aft deck of a yacht, sitting in the shade as a cool breeze takes the heat out of the air and you watch your family playing with inflatables in the sea?

Let’s just hope their aren’t further economic jellyfish to spoil my dream scenario.

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A marine journalist, adventurous sailor and author of “Dubai Yachting & Boating Guide”, Toby Haws is Business Development Manager for Hatteras Collection United Arab Emirates, the sole importer of the US-built Hatteras and Cabo sportsfishing and luxury leisure yacht brands.

News that Abu Dhabi’s Sheikh Mansour is cashing in his stake in Barclays is attracting cries of anguish from institutional investors.

A £2 billion ($3.26 billion) investment of convertible shares in Barclays was bought at the height of the UK credit crunch when the bank faced the choice of raising capital in the market or accepting a bailout that would see the British government become its largest shareholder.

Sheikh Mansour Bin Zayed Al Nahyan extracted what other investors considered to be preferable terms for its convertible shares, and criticised the bank for not making those terms available to all.

This week’s profit taking, which could net the Abu Dhabi sheikh a royal return of up to 70 percent, according to analysts, will do nothing to dampen the resentment of these investors.

Their chagrin is misplaced, as shareholders in General Motors will testify. In the case of the bankrupt motor manufacturer, the US government rescue almost entirely wiped out what was left of the company’s share value.

A British bailout of Barclays would not have been quite so bad for its shareholders, but it would probably have been a good deal worse for them than the deal that was struck with Abu Dhabi and Qatar investors.

They would have no doubt liked the sweeteners that Sheikh Mansour extracted, but they weren’t sitting at the negotiating table with the ability and willingness to write a cheque for £2 billion.

Sheikh Mansour took the risk, and is now fully entitled to the rewards.

Negative press coverage will make Dubai a better place, it’s the international consultancy firms who flocked to the city in the boom years that should be worried, claimed one of the region’s leading businessmen at the World Economic Forum in Jordan.

“I think Dubai is getting the best consulting for free from the media. In a crisis you don’t have a lot of funds to start with, so if you can get some criticism and consulting for free, that’s good,” said Sheikh Khaled bin Zayed Al Nahyan, the chairman of Tamweel, during a panel debate.

Not all Arab business leaders are known for their high tolerance of media criticism, but Sheikh Khaled urged his peers to use any negative publicity to their advantage.

“Some of it is true, some of it is not true, but I think we have enough wise people in Dubai to look at it and channel it in the right direction,” he said.

Sheikh Khaled, who is also the chairman of insurance provider Salama and the executive committee of the Dubai Economic Council, apologized to a Bain & Co consultant on the panel before saying: “This is not coming from one consulting firm alone. These are people who have experienced Dubai, who came to Dubai whether they like us or hate us, and they are telling us about issues that they have seen

“So thank you to all the media that has criticized Dubai.”

Nasser Al Shaikh, the former head of Dubai’s finance department who was pulled from his job on Monday, said the media coverage was positive in that it showed that people around the world are now interested in hearing Dubai’s story.

“Of course we don’t agree with a lot of the coverage we have been getting lately. If I look at some of the stories about cars being dumped in Dubai’s airport, it started with a few hundred, all of a sudden it reached 11,000 cars.

“I remember calling His Highness Sheikh Ahmed bin Saeed Al Maktoum [president of the Dubai Department of Civil Aviation] and asking him: ‘What’s the capacity of the parking lot?’”

Coverage of Dubai in the international media is now starting to become more balanced, he added.

“We are seeing more balanced coverage, because what more bad stories can they write?”

This is my first time covering the World Economic Forum on the Middle East (WEF), so I’m not quite sure what to expect.

My editor told me this would be the highlight of the year, or something to that effect, but then I don’t know what he might have in store for me for the remainder of the year. (I may soon be put in charge of filing corporate tax reports, for all I know.)

This much is clear: there are a lot of important people here, and for once, what they are going to say is not entirely obvious. Faced by an unprecedented crisis in the world’s financial system, many free market enthusiasts have had to change their message and, more importantly perhaps, become more open to differing views.

Among those attending this year’s forum at the Dead Sea in Jordan: John Kerry, former presidential candidate and chairman of the US Senate Committee on Foreign Relations; Fouad Siniora, the Lebanese prime minister; and Ahmed Nazif, prime minister of Egypt.

A three-year WEF veteran from a Jordanian newspaper tells me this is the largest forum she has covered so far. “I think this is because of the topic, the effects of the world financial crisis on the Middle East,” she says.

Many of the 1,300 hundred participants stay in the luxury resorts here by the Dead Sea, but occupancy at hotels in Amman – a 40 minute drive from here – also skyrockets during the forum.

However, despite rising public interest in the economy in the wake of the crisis, this is an event that will go unnoticed by most Jordanians, she says.

Between interviews and panel discussions, the biggest observation (read: gripe) this World Economic Forum reporter has is a conspicuous lack of food.

Unlike press events in Dubai, where “press room” is often synonymous with “generous buffet”, there has been very little to eat here since a breakfast croissant. With security tight around the convention centre, there is little hope of escaping to one of the neighbouring hotels for a quick bite.

A friend who works in PR alerts me to a “secret place” where there are some “amazing” cookies to be had. I take two, despite a disapproving glance from another participant (who would have liked to do the same thing had she dared to, no doubt).

Minutes later a colleague tells me her newspaper’s driver just delivered take away from McDonald’s, and that there is one extra meal just sitting there. What to do?

After a day-long fast, I am now more than a little hopped up on sugar, and whatever else they put in those meals. Just thought I’d mention it, should the next report sound a little unusual.