by
Rob Corder on Sunday, 28 June 2009 at 02:09 UAE time.
At the time of writing, shares in Emaar Properties are down 10 percent in the first five hours of trading since it announced it would be acquiring Dubai Holdings companies Sama Dubai, Tatweer and Dubai Properties Group.
Investors are trying to absorb the complexity of the deal and, in the absence of hard facts about the future of the business, they are taking the obvious course of action: clear out of the stock until reliable information emerges.
Sama, Tatweer and DPG are private companies without published accounts. In essence, all three are holding companies - subsidiaries of the daddy of all holding companies: Dubai Holdings.
As such, they are the sum of their assets, rather than assets in their own right. To illustrate the intangible role of these companies, you only have to read their mission statements. For example, on Tatweer’s web site, it has a frequently asked question section that provides the following insight:
Question: What is Tatweer’s main strategy?
Answer: Tatweer will focus on leadership development to achieve business excellence and world class quality standards for all of its subsidiaries.
Tatweer will become a world class enterprise through value generation, customer focus and excellence for our people and stakeholders. In addition, it will focus on developing and diversifying the business portfolio by capitalising on market opportunities in existing and new sectors.
If anybody can find a statement with less meaning than this, please send it on a postcard to Arabian Business.
The assets under management by these holding companies are considerably more meaningful, but no easier to value.
Emaar has said that the combined companies will have assets worth a total of $52.85 billion. Not $52 billion, not $53 billion, exactly $52.85 billion - precision that suggests real mathematics and accounting is involved.
In its current trading statement, Emaar says that its assets are valued at $16.5 billion. The combined total for Sama, Tatweer and Dubai Properties is therefore $36.35 billion.
The value of Sama, Tatweer and Dubai Properties assets are therefore priced at more than double the value of Emaar’s assets.
Judge for yourself whether that calculation seems reasonable, by comparing the value of these assets:
| Sama, Tatweer and Dubai Properties Group Assets: |
|
| Dubailand |
| Dubai Industrial City |
| Mizin (Real Estate development) |
| Dubai Mercantile Exchange |
| Dubai Healthcare City |
| Bawadi (Hotels and hospitality development) |
| Dubai Properties (Develops and manages planned communities) |
| Jumeirah Beach Residence |
| Dubai Business Bay |
| Executive Towers at Business Bay |
| Bay Square |
| Al Waha Villas |
| Culture Village |
| The Villa |
| Mudon (residential community within Dubailand) |
| Tijara Town |
| Dubai Culture Village |
| Salwan (property management services) |
| Injaz (Develops fully sustainable green communities) |
| Dubai Asset Management (Facilities management and security services) |
| Dubai Retail (Develops retail services) |
| Dubai Hospitality (Develops hospitality services) |
| Dubai Towers in Doha |
| Amwaj Rabat (Residential community in Morocco) |
| Salam Resort (Tourist resort project in Bahrain) |
| The Lagoons (Residential community in Dubai) |
| Dubai Towers (Skyscraper project in Dubai) |
|
| Presumed asset value: $36.35 billion |
|
Emaar, Emaar subsidiaries and Emaar joint venture Assets: |
|
|
|
| Arabian Ranches (Residential Community) |
|
| Downtown Burj Dubai (mixed community) |
|
| Dubai Marina (Residential community) |
|
| Emaar Towers |
|
| Emirates Hills (Residential community) |
|
| Mushrif Heights (Residential community) |
|
| The Greens (Residential community) |
|
| The Lakes (Residential community) |
|
| The Meadows (Residential community) |
|
| The Springs (Residential community) |
|
| The Views (Residential community) |
|
| Umm Al Quwain Marina, UAE |
|
| 12 mixed use residential projects in India (JV with MGF Developments) |
|
| Four commercial projects in India (JV with MGF Developments) |
|
| One hotel in India (JV with MGF Developments) |
|
| Plans for hospitals and schools in India |
|
| Lombok Island (mixed use project in Indonesia) |
|
| Samarah Dead Sea Resort (mixed use project in Jordan) |
|
| Al Khobar Lakes, Saudi Arabia (mixed use) |
|
| Jeddah Gate, Saudi Arabia (mixed use) |
|
| Uptown Cairo (mixed use, Egypt) |
|
| Marassi (mixed use, El Alamein, Egypt) |
|
| Cairo Gate (mixed use, Egypt) |
|
| Mivida (mixed use, Cairo, Egypt) |
|
| Bahia Bay (residential and leisure community, Morocco) |
|
| Amelkis II (golf resort, Morocco) |
|
| Oukaimeden (mountain resort, Morocco) |
|
| Saphira (beach and marine resort, Morocco) |
|
| Tinja (marina resort, Morocco) |
|
| Highlands and Canyon Views, Islamabad (residential community, Pakistan) |
|
| Crescent Bay, Karachi (beachfront community, Pakistan) |
|
| King Abdullah Economic City (mixed use, Saudi Arabia) |
|
| The Eighth Gate (waterfront community, Syria) |
|
| Marina Al Qussor (marina community, Tunisia) |
|
| Tuscan Valley , Istanbul (mixed use, Turkey) |
|
| John Laing Homes (home builder, USA) |
|
|
|
| Stated asset value: $16.5 billion |
|
The first thing that strikes me when comparing these lists of projects is that Emaar is considerably more diversified in terms of its geographic spread. Between Sama, Dubai Properties and Tatweer, only three projects are outside the UAE. For Emaar, the majority are non-UAE.
Real estate values are falling all around the world, but nowhere faster than the UAE. Emaar’s asset value should therefore be more robust than those of its new businesses.
The real question for investors is how to value these assets, what are the business plans of each project (cashflow, revenues, profits), and what will be their impact on the overall profitability and growth prospects of the group.
This would require a full time team of forensic accountants and researchers several years to evaluate.
Which makes it all the more surprising that a value of $52.85 billion has been established only moments after the news was released that these companies would be merging. I’m not saying that it isn’t $52.85 billion, but I expect I could make a case for $52 billion or $53 billion just as easily.
You do the maths, and let me know what you conclude.