Brinkmanship and bluff have always been a part of the multi-million dollar world of Formula One racing, and there is little reason to suppose that the current battle between the sport’s governing body, the FIA, and its teams, who are negotiating under the name of FOTA, will not find a solution to their dispute.
The man in the middle of the warring factions Bernie Ecclestone, who presides over the commercial rights of F1, and is widely accepted as the only person who can bang heads together to reach an agreement.
The current dispute is focused on the imposition of a plan by Max Mosley, president of the FIA, of a spending cap by F1 teams for next year’s season. The teams, particularly the richest teams including Ferrari and Renault (led by the flamboyant Flavio Briatore), want the spending cap scrapped, or at least phased in over several years.
The spending cap may be the headline issue, but most F1 pundits assume this spat is about a power struggle between Mr Mosley, and Mr Briatore.
If there no agreement is reached, FOTA has said it will form a breakaway series next year, which will have a profound impact on racing in the GCC.
Formula One is a brand operated by Mr Ecclestone that holds all the commercial rights to the racing, and all the contracts with race track owners. Abu Dhabi and Bahrain have contracts to host F1 races.
If the sport splits, there will two championships, and here I will defer to the expertise of Professor Mark Jenkins, director of research at Cranfield School of Management, author of Motorsport Going Global: The Challenges Facing the World’s Motorsport Industry, and respected blogger on F1 racing. Professor Jenkins predicts competing championships that look like this:
The FIA Formula 1 2010 Championship.
As things stand there are currently five teams entered for this championship (if we disregard Ferrari, Red Bull Racing and Toro Rosso who the FIA say are confirmed entrants, but the teams themselves say they are not).
Of the current F1 teams there are only two, Williams and Force India, and three new teams: Campos, USF1 and Manor. Both Williams and Force India have engine contracts in place with Toyota and Mercedes respectively, if we assume that these FOTA teams will not continue to supply engines to FIA championship contenders, then Williams and Force India will probably use Cosworth Engines, effectively making the FIA championship a single engine formula, great for Cosworth, but certainly not in the spirit of Formula 1.
The FIA will also need to find another five teams, with potential new entrants Lola and N Technology pulling out these may come from Prodrive/Aston Martin, Litespeed, Formtech and Epsilon, assuming that their partners are still interested if they aren’t now competing against teams like Ferrari and McLaren. Either way the majority will be new teams with new drivers unknown to the F1 fan base.
The FOTA 2010 Championship
The first problem that FOTA will have is what to call themselves. The commercial rights holder for the F1 championship (Bernie Ecclestone) has been consistently firm in ensuring that any commercial operation using language close to ‘F1′ either pays significant licensing fees or changes their name.
FOTA may try to do a deal with Tony Teixeira to use his A1GP name (Ferrari currently supply the engines for the series) but their options are not wide. The eight FOTA teams will also need to find a tyre supplier
(Bridgestone being contracted to F1, and no-one else is currently interested in spending the kind of investment needed to be in F1), Pirelli, Michelin and Goodyear are possible start points, but may need some financial incentives to get involved.
They will also need circuits. If we assume that currently contracted F1 circuits would not be able to host a FOTA race then the obvious start point would be former F1 circuits - Silverstone and Brands Hatch in the UK, Montreal in Canada, Indianapolis in the US and Imola in Italy are all in the frame.
FOTA will also need regulations and an organisation to enforce these. To make the business model work the series needs media revenue which in F1 provides around 20% of the revenues for the teams, this means deals need to be done with media operations to sell the rights to the series and this requires commitment and clarity for a number of years so that some return on investment can be estimated.
Professor Jenkins assumes that F1 circuits will remain F1 circuits, so Abu Dhabi and Bahrain will host races that lack the cars and the best drivers (Button, Hamilton, Massa all drive for FOTA teams). Broadcasters might still show these races because they are on long-term contracts, but these same broadcasters might also show the FOTA races, which could grab a larger audience because the drivers and teams are bigger brands than F1 and the FIA.
The problem could be compounded for Abu Dhabi and Bahrain if FOTA signs up a series of street races. What the glamour of F1 has done for Monaco, FOTA could do for Dubai and Doha. I can certainly picture Ferarri and McLaren racing a circuit that includes Shindagha Tunnel, Maktoum Bridge and tearing along a start/finish straight along Baniyas Road at 300 km/h.

How a Dubai Street Grand Prix might look on Google Maps.
As a Formula 1 enthusiast, I would like to see all the best drivers and all the best cars competing in a single championship, preferably one that sees a good deal more overtaking and excitement than we have witnessed this year. But if the sport fragments, I for one will be booking a room in the Radisson Blu Hotel (formerly the Dubai Intercontinental) to watch the FOTA Dubai grand prix. Abu Dhabi’s F1 race would pale in comparison.