Investment bankers are a rare breed. They operate in a world where deals are brokered well away from the glare of publicity, but their very survival depends on maintaining a public profile.
It is a difficult balancing act.
One of the tricks of the trade they use to pull it off is to release research notes to investors and the media designed to make them appear like oracles with a bottomless depth of industry knowledge.
This distribution of industry knowledge aims to give confidence to private individuals who trust the investment banks to invest their money wisely. The more knowledge a bank appears to have, the more people trust them with their hard-earned cash.
In the Middle East, there are a few investment banks that consistently provide valuable insight into the market. EFG Hermes is normally a reliable source of opinion, if not always hard facts. Barclays Capital also distributes wise words from time to time.
But these multinational operators have their clever techniques undermined by smaller, more local, players who understand the need to have their voices heard, but often have nothing of value to say.
I could point to any number of examples from across the GCC, so UAE-based Al Mal Capital is not alone in serving up industry gossip disguised as priceless research, but a report today usefully illustrates my point.
In a research note about the UAE mobile phone market, the bank asserts that growth in the number of phones in use will slow this year as the population shrinks.
In a not insubstantial report, Al Mal says that every person in the UAE had more than two mobile phones in 2008. But its analyst goes on to say that this figure might be misleading as it doesn’t take into account whether the phones are active or not.
In other words, the number is more than misleading, it is useless.
What else might be useless in the research note? Perhaps its “estimate” of 2008 population, which it records (or guesses) was 5.6 million (the last official census in 2006 revealed the population to be 4.6 million).
Or perhaps its guess that the UAE population will decline this year to 5.08 is also misleading. After all, the head of the Dubai Naturalisation & Residency Department, the government body responsible for issuing residence visas, says that more people have been arriving in the city than leaving.
DRND chief, Major General Mohammed Ahmed Al Marri, is specific about the figures: in January this year DRND issued 88,423 new residency and cancelled 54,684. Every other assertion about UAE population growth since this announcement has ignored the hard facts provided by the man in charge of visas.
In a way, GCC authorities have only themselves to blame. The institutions do not exist to provide reliable and trusted statistics, so investment bankers (and ratings agencies, and journalists, and the general public) happily make up their own numbers.
The bizarre thing is that when government officials do stand up to be counted, their word is ignored over the guesswork of investment bankers.
