As an analyst we are always looking for external market indicators that could preview a market shift over the coming months. Like an environmentalist looking at the spread of microbacteria and plankton as a precursor to establish whether to predict a bumper fishing stock, I believe that signs of mid-sector consumer economic confidence can be established if normal buyers, not investors, are beginning to spend again.

Along with Black Sea Beluga, second houses, five-star holidays and Ferraris, the desire to buy a yacht is one of the first things to be mothballed in times of economic downturn. As one potential client returned to the emphatic ‘lots of deals to be had’ sales line: “I have just had to let 200 of my staff go and am fighting to save my company, the livlihood of my remaining staff and ensure my family has a future. I’m afraid spending on my leisure time is the last thing I want to be doing!”

Throughout the early months of the year, this was certainly the case across the yacht sales and charter markets around the world, with Dubai being the quietest it had been for years. Not only were there very few reported sales, charters or activities, but in January and February very few owners were even using their yachts, a combination of cold climate and cold economics souring the experience.

Always the high-point of the UAE boating market, the Dubai International Boat Show in March followed the disastrous sales record of 2008 (contrary to many mass media reports), but did see a change in the size of boat being sold, with far more interest in the 40ft and below market, mostly bought without the need for credit, rather than the 40-60ft market that was booming last year.

Another dip in interest continued through the following month, but since May many brokers have been reporting a stark resurgence in client leads, including a number of yacht brokers moving stock they had been trying to sell for many months. While many of these boats were parted with at not much more than a price that covered running cost for some brokers, the fact that the public are again buying must indicate an increased confidence in long term commitment to staying in Dubai, must it not?

“In any changing market it is vital for business to likewise adapt and attempt to foresee how best to suit the changing needs of its client,” explained Ross Gill, General Manager of Hatteras Collection United Arab Emirates. “This is easier for some businesses over others, depending on their commitment and interest in the industry they work in. At the end of the day, our clients are all business leaders themselves, they are all up against the same family pressures, time commitments and lifestyle choices we all are. In this respect the yachting industry is no different from any other luxury goods market. What then swings the decision is the relationship and manner in which a company relates, communicates and deals with its customers. That is what makes the difference when times are hard for all.”

Instead of the cash-rich Russian or young party-orientated entrepreneur, brokers are seeing a different demographic of buyer returning to confidently invest in their leisure time. One potential client claimed that he had never previously been interested in a yacht, as he saw it to be a waste of money: “but in these times, I’d prefer my money to be safely invested in something that I can enjoy, rather than losing money in the stock market or housing slide” he joked.

This position is one supported by Ross Gill:

“In today’s market cash is king, but never buy a boat because it’s cheaper than the one next to it. The price of the boat is not its real value. The space, usability and how much you, your friends or the family really enjoy it is the true value, a cheaper boat that you don’t use is a far worse asset then the slightly more expensive one used every weekend.”

Another trend coming to the fore is the increasing number of GCC nationals showing an interest in yachting as opposed to their predominant water-based past-time of fishing. Yachting as a leisure pursuit has never been high on the agenda of Emiratis in comparison to the other GCC nations, but there is a very gradual indication that this may be about to change - which will do a lot for increasing the baseline perception and acceptance of yachting.

As Dubai and Abu Dhabi both await further marina space to come available towards the end of the year, Dubai-based brokers are finding that clients outside of the Emirates are more than willing to travel for their purchase:

“I’ve been having increased interest from Bahrain, Qatar and Kuwait,” explained Chris Macky, owner of Formula dealer Macky Marine. ” Not only do they seem a lot more knowledgeable about boating and the quality of boat build, but they are also prepared to travel to Dubai to see the product and follow through with their deals.”

One dealer in Dubai Marina Yacht Club made three sales last week, two to Kuwait, which has certainly given the dealer a spring in his step before entering the traditionally slow summer period.

“It’s certainly changed my attitude,” he said, “and gives me hope that there is a perception change within the market that the Middle East is still a safe place to do business, to invest in and to stay with the family. The GCC market is very different from the established markets of Europe, Australia and the US, it is very reactive andthis is what will rescue it far in advance of other countries.”

While it is certainly not all ‘plain sailing’ for any marine company in Dubai, the fact there is sales movement indicates confidence in an otherwise tempestuous world. And thinking about it, if everything else is going wrong, where better to escape to than the aft deck of a yacht, sitting in the shade as a cool breeze takes the heat out of the air and you watch your family playing with inflatables in the sea?

Let’s just hope their aren’t further economic jellyfish to spoil my dream scenario.

———-

A marine journalist, adventurous sailor and author of “Dubai Yachting & Boating Guide”, Toby Haws is Business Development Manager for Hatteras Collection United Arab Emirates, the sole importer of the US-built Hatteras and Cabo sportsfishing and luxury leisure yacht brands.

Two high profile malls on the Metro line will start charging for parking more than 4 hours, arguing that they would otherwise be swamped with park-n-ride commuters using the car park all day while they catch the metro into town.

While we don’t know what the charges will be yet, it seems the free visit to the mall is fast becoming a thing of the past.

Recently I visited Battuta mall and found that I had to PAY MONEY just to sit in a room where the latest blockbuster movie was playing.

Afterwards I visited the food court only to find that they too had caught onto this charging business. Mall visitors were expected to PAY MONEY to get served food and drinks. Clearly the concept of basic hospitality has gone out the window.

Even the shops are at it, one would be hard pressed now to find any store in these malls that does not require you PAY MONEY in order to obtain the goods on display on their shelves. So much for ‘my house is your house’.

For those of us who’d made a weekly routine of taking the family for a 7 hour stink of wandering around the mall without eating, drinking or buying anything, the sudden imposition of charges after four hours is going to have a huge impact. The amount of time we can spend photographing family members in front of the Nike store or the large fibre-glass elephant is going to be severely curtailed, or worse - we may decide to spend absolutely nothing each week at another mall instead. Then they’ll be sorry….

In June 2003 at The Rose Bowl in Hampshire, England, the very first game of Twenty20 cricket was played between the two English county teams Hampshire and Sussex. Rather anti-climactically, the first ball was a wide. But the bowler quickly ran back to his mark to bowl again displaying a sense of urgency seldom seen in this most parochial of sports.

The inventor, former English Cricket Board (ECB) Marketing Manager Stuart Robertson had been instructed by his employer to research ways in which cricket could be made more accessible. Market research had shown that people felt excluded by the longer versions of cricket because of the time required to complete a game. Something was required that people could watch after school or work with their family and friends that would only last a few hours.

Twenty20 ticked all the boxes and became a big success. Four years later the ICC held the inaugural T20 World Cup in South Africa and the money started rolling in.

The winners of that first World Cup, India had largely ignored T20 cricket up until that point. But as the legions of fanatical Indian cricket lovers celebrated, plans were underway for what is now one of the most watched sporting events on the planet - the Indian Premier League (IPL)

There is quite rightly, a sense of national pride in India associated with the IPL. This tournament alone will go along way to redefining the game of cricket.

T20 is very much a game for the modern ‘want it now’ generation and has many purists worried. Test Cricket - the very rock upon which cricket was built - the ultimate ‘test’ of not just individual cricketing skills but of inner strength and character is on the wane.

After a very successful - albeit forced foray into a foreign market (the second season of IPL was held in South Africa this year because of security concerns in India), the entrepreneurs behind the IPL are eyeing up further expansion. This time - in America. America is not seen as a traditional cricketing nation but the prospect of a second season of IPL to be played in the US during the summer has become a very real possibility.

With the number of sub-continent and Caribbean expats in the US it is estimated that there are 15 to 20 million cricket fans in America. With a potential audience of more than double that figure it makes America the second biggest cricket market - for Twenty20 - outside of India.

The real challenge lies in how to sell Twenty20 to your average American who may have never seen the game before. The skeptics will wonder how on earth cricket can be a success in America when its main sporting rival, baseball, is so popular.

The Chairman of the IPL, Lalit Modi - points to many interesting statistics when eyeing expansion into the US. In the IPL for instance, 70% of the audience attending matches had never been to a game of cricket before. Out of that 70%, 80% of these people went to 2 or more games. Modi is confident and rightly so.

It may surprise some to learn that America does have a cricketing history. In fact, the first ever game of International cricket was played between the US and Canada in 1844. The match was held in New York and was watched by more than 10,000 spectators.

There are currently no professional cricket leagues or teams in the US however, but interestingly, the game is played extensively at grass roots level. The next step is there to be taken and the canny marketers behind the IPL are ready to pounce.

There are other cricketing frontiers that the International Cricket Council (ICC) is eyeing for expansion. The most notable country on the hit list is China. - A fledging cricketing nation in every sense of the word who has set itself the target of participating in the 2019 World Cup. If China falls in love with cricket it is quite conceivable that they could become a cricketing super-power the equal of India in 20 or 30 years from now.

The game of cricket, once the most English and exclusive of games is now well on the way to becoming entrenched in the global sporting consciousness along side sports such as football and to a lesser degree rugby. The reach and appeal of the IPL is testament to the cultural and economic growth of India. The spiritual home of cricket may well be Lords in London. But the future of the game most definitely lies elsewhere.

Thanks to Twenty20, the game of cricket is on the up. The modern game is being shaped by the masses of IPL fans in India and by the players who can now command huge salaries like never before. The game is no longer being run by a group of pipe smoking, walking stick wielding, old school tie wearing fuddy-duddies. Cricket is going global.

Having just finished compiling an article for Boat Owner Middle East on why I don’t believe the 33rd America’s Cup will make it to the Arabian Gulf - primarily as I don’t believe any emirate will put up the $40 million dollars for it - I saw that there is much discussion of Louis Vuitton starting a World Series using the current ACC V5 yachts as a tour similar to a Formula One competition.

Now there is something that would enliven the region’s sailing fraternity and bring in visitor revenue without a doubt.
Due to lengthy court battles between Larry Ellison’s BMW/Oracle (US) racing team and Ernesto Berterelli’s Alinghi (SUI) sailing team, the 33rd America’s Cup will be a battle between just two nations, both teams sporting the largest budgets ever before seen in sailing to build 90ft trimarans.

While they would indeed make an amazing sight on teh warm flat waters of the Arabian gulf, at the end of the day it is only two teams competing. To try and hit the $10 billion revenue target some commentators have speculated Dubai could bring in if it hosted an America’s Cup competition, you need a minimum of 12 teams competing over the 4-year duration. Two teams battling head to head in February next year will not have the same economic impact.
Hosting a round of an international series including all the top sailing teams of the world, Emirates Team New Zealand, the British Team Origin, South Africa’s Shosholoza, etc… now that is a different proposal all together.

Not only does every team come with at least a 50-strong roadshow of technicians, sailors, support staff and masses of equipment that needs storing, transporting, etc, but the international popularity would undoubtedly fill the hotel capacity, sort out any restaurant overcapacity and give merchandising entrepreneurs a massive opportunity to bring in the business.
Sailing may not have the media support and credibility in the UAE and Arab culture as motorsport or horse racing, but with Emirates sponsoring Emirates Team New Zealand, Oman embarking on a massive international sailing and marketing campaign, Qatar having a history of sponsoring races and currently supporting the ex-World Match Race Tour Champion, the prospect of the sport becoming mainstream is only held back by lack of knowledge by sports reporters.

With the oldest trophy in sporting history and budgets that would make most motorsport syndicates weep, the America’s Cup sailing world is no game for millionaires - don’t get involved until you’ve hit a billion. This is certainly not a call for everyone to drop their Friday brunches and jump into a dinghy - no, please keep the seas free for me! - rather a nod to look at the different ways the cities trapped between sand and sea can use the light blue backdrop as a fantastic marketing and promotional tool that will be watched around the world. The trick for promoters is to ensure they do their ROI figures before getting caught up in the hype of an event, ensuring that all businesses benefit from a sailing competition, rather than invest and be left with a sour (or salty) taste of disappointment.

Of course i have a personal interest - who wouldn’t wish to see the champions of their sport battling it out at close quarters, out socialising in the local restaurants and the thrill of being in an exciting city. To make money, you have to spend money. let’s hope that the authorities, adjudicators, promoters and decision makers all think about the larger picture before getting absorbed in the pretty brochure.

At the time of writing, shares in Emaar Properties are down 10 percent in the first five hours of trading since it announced it would be acquiring Dubai Holdings companies Sama Dubai, Tatweer and Dubai Properties Group.

Investors are trying to absorb the complexity of the deal and, in the absence of hard facts about the future of the business, they are taking the obvious course of action: clear out of the stock until reliable information emerges.

Sama, Tatweer and DPG are private companies without published accounts. In essence, all three are holding companies - subsidiaries of the daddy of all holding companies: Dubai Holdings.

As such, they are the sum of their assets, rather than assets in their own right. To illustrate the intangible role of these companies, you only have to read their mission statements. For example, on Tatweer’s web site, it has a frequently asked question section that provides the following insight:

Question: What is Tatweer’s main strategy?

Answer: Tatweer will focus on leadership development to achieve business excellence and world class quality standards for all of its subsidiaries.

Tatweer will become a world class enterprise through value generation, customer focus and excellence for our people and stakeholders. In addition, it will focus on developing and diversifying the business portfolio by capitalising on market opportunities in existing and new sectors.

If anybody can find a statement with less meaning than this, please send it on a postcard to Arabian Business.

The assets under management by these holding companies are considerably more meaningful, but no easier to value.

Emaar has said that the combined companies will have assets worth a total of $52.85 billion. Not $52 billion, not $53 billion, exactly $52.85 billion - precision that suggests real mathematics and accounting is involved.

In its current trading statement, Emaar says that its assets are valued at $16.5 billion. The combined total for Sama, Tatweer and Dubai Properties is therefore $36.35 billion.

The value of Sama, Tatweer and Dubai Properties assets are therefore priced at more than double the value of Emaar’s assets.

Judge for yourself whether that calculation seems reasonable, by comparing the value of these assets:

The first thing that strikes me when comparing these lists of projects is that Emaar is considerably more diversified in terms of its geographic spread. Between Sama, Dubai Properties and Tatweer, only three projects are outside the UAE. For Emaar, the majority are non-UAE.

Real estate values are falling all around the world, but nowhere faster than the UAE. Emaar’s asset value should therefore be more robust than those of its new businesses.

The real question for investors is how to value these assets, what are the business plans of each project (cashflow, revenues, profits), and what will be their impact on the overall profitability and growth prospects of the group.

This would require a full time team of forensic accountants and researchers several years to evaluate.

Which makes it all the more surprising that a value of $52.85 billion has been established only moments after the news was released that these companies would be merging. I’m not saying that it isn’t $52.85 billion, but I expect I could make a case for $52 billion or $53 billion just as easily.

You do the maths, and let me know what you conclude.