The glamour of owning an English Premier League club might soon lose its lustre for Suleiman Al-Fahim, who completed a takeover of Portsmouth FC this week.
The team is currently second bottom in the league, with three losses from the first three games of the season.
British bookmakers have made Portsmouth odds-on favourites to be relegated at the end of the 2009-10 campaign.
Having reportedly paid £60 million ($100m) for the club, Al-Fahim stands to lose around £30 per year if the club is relegated to the second tier Coca Cola Championship.
Since Arabianbusiness.com is a business site, not a sports site, I will spare you my pub punditry on the quality of the squad, but will instead look at the mathematical likelihood of Premiership survival based on the evidence to date.
The decision Al Fahim has to make now, or more likely in the January transfer windows, is whether to invest in new players. The cost of luring players is inflated for teams in relegation trouble, and typically teams in the lower reaches of the league opt for loan players who are not playing regular Premiership football elsewhere.
But before January, one key person can be replaced: the manager, Paul Hart. In the 16 game tenure at the end of last season, his record was a tolerable played 16, won four, lost seven, drew five - 1.06 points per game.
Having lost the first three games of the season, Mr Hart now has 35 games left to reach what is commonly reported as a safe number of points for survival in the Premier League: the magic 40 point mark.
If Portsmouth continue to average 1.06 points per game, they will reach 37.1 points this season, a tally that most people would expect to see the club relegated.
But, hang on. Conventional wisdom on the points required to survive in the Premiership is wrong. It is true that every club that has scored 40 points or more in the past six years has survived, but it is also the case that 37 points would have been enough to stay up for every season but one since 2003.
Should Paul Hart remain the manager of Portsmouth for the whole of this season? The statistics suggest that it would not be a disaster.
But football is a game played on grass, not paper and, if I were a Pompey fan, I would not enjoy the season if the target was 37 points.
British bookmakers not only have Portsmouth favourite to be relegated, they also have Paul Hart as strong favourite to be the first Premiership manager to lose his job. Who am I to argue?

