Could it be lights out for the Gulf?

It's often remarked that new buildings in the Gulf appear to pop up at the speed of light.

Unfortunately, it now seems that Gulf development has overtaken even that pace - and as a result the region faces a dark immediate future. The runaway growth of the Gulf economies means that we are on the verge of a power supply crisis.

A recent report by analysts at Global Insight warns that while power consumption is expected to rise 50 percent over the next five years, power generation will only increase by 30 percent over the same period.

While the Gulf holds around 30 percent of global oil reserves and 8 percent of its gas reserves, it seems that we are no longer capable of keeping home fires burning. In the middle of a long, hot summer, we simply don't have the means to meet the peak demands for power in the Gulf.

A combination of high population growth, rapid industrial expansion and a rampant construction sector has meant that the Gulf's astonishing growth may actually hinder its chances of future prosperity. In the race to build the biggest and best, the GCC is about to pull up with a painful stitch.

Industrial projects are being scrapped, hospital wards are blacking out, and otherwise completed residential units are lying empty without the means to power lifts or even light bulbs. This in a region where insufficient supply of residential units is driving rental prices through the roof.

While Gulf governments scramble to cover the shortfall, the truth is that peak-demand power cuts are inevitable over the coming months and years. We can't turn back the clock, and it's too late for investment in infrastructure that should have been made five or 10 years ago.

To follow South Africa's lead - that is, scheduled blackouts agreed between utility providers and big consumers such as industrial clients, hotels, universities or residential blocks - may be the only option in the short term, as proposed nuclear and even coal-fired plants will take years to build and come online.

Part of the solution no doubt lies in the $1.6bn multilateral GCC power grid, a project that will supply electricity to Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, the UAE and Oman.

The importing of gas should ease the burden too, and the $7bn Dolphin Gas project will prove an invaluable lifeline between Qatar and the UAE. Nevertheless, not all Gulf countries have yet accepted that importing gas may be the only way to meet soaring demand.

At the same time there will be a move towards alternative energy and substitute gas sources such as sour gas and tight gas - but again, it will be a few years before your air conditioning unit is running on wind power alone.

In the meantime, the Gulf's candle makers can look forward to a busy few years.

Andrew White is the deputy editor of Arabian Business English.

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