Dubai headed for another slump within 18mths says Abu Dhabi chief

“It will fall, it will correct and this is something we should all expect to happen and I expect it to happen in the next 18 to 24 months"

Awi

Ha, the moment property prices start to rise again, the whole 'bubble' discussion starts again. As if we haven't had that pre 2008!! People said in 2006 it was a bubble... And yes, they were right... just the timing was a bit off!

Steady

Just reading these experts and all of the earlier one's who steered the likes of Lehmann's into oblivion makes me wonder how people can talk rubbish or be stupid enough to believe their own rubbish, these guys believe their home market experience is bound to replicate here whereas the fact remains that it is the Indian and Pakistani investor set who influences the Dubai realty market and trust me they care two hoots for these "experts"!

One really does not to be a genius to realize that anybody who bought last year when the confidence had not returned would make a windfall if the confidence returned and it did! And it would be stupid to expect to have the prices continue to rise at that level as that opportunity has passed however fundamentals will ensure a healthy ROI on Dubai realty for a long time.

Geko

Among all the prediction, the one about ?next correction? would go wrong anyway. In the first crisis, we had cash buyers from Afghan, Egypt, Pakistan, Russia and Iraq ran through floodgate with their suitcases packed up.

Now, the channels are dry after that flood. Especially, after the aids were locked out, recovery would be nearly even utterly impossible.

Lover of Camels

In June 2012 for the first time since the crash we bought something in Dubai.

The market was still dead in my view, or was just ever so slightly starting to pick up.

We are little more then a year on from this and we are being told we have peaked?

Surely we are still at the very beginning of an upward cycle?

I know he says there are shorter cycles for emerging markets, but I haven't even had time to finish my breakfast!

Yogi Bear

1. Property prices continue to rise from here, as expo win is announced and pressure on housing (from rising population) keeps rents increasing.


2. Property prices end up at 2 or 3 times todays values and are out of whack with salaries and yield expectations. Basically are based on sentiment and no solid fundamentals

3. New projects start completing 12-24 months and pressure starts easing on housing - prices level out.

4. Something triggers a crash. Spike in cost of borrowing, or more dramatically something that causes a 'mass exodus'.

5. Crash halves property prices (bottom of cycle) but as they had inflated 2 - 3 times, the bottom is still be significantly higher then prices we have today.


Does anybody agree with this - sort of?

james last

meewww..!!!

Waqas

Sounds like Sour grapes. Dubai's market is based on end users, and prices are still some way off 2008 levels, and that is why prices will keep rising for the next few years

stephen

Quite right, Supreme jealousy! Dubai buyers all want to live in their properties, even the unfinished ones and there is no speculation whatsoever. And of course 2008 levels were realistic and supported by fundamentals therefore we should reach and indeed surpass those soon.

Dubya

One of the most thought provoking and well thought out / reasoned arguments I have seen put forward yet. He is an intelligent gentleman.

SPP

No...He is jealous of Dubai's iconic development and growth....Get the next flight out of UAE...Compare the growth of Dubai to European/Western countries...Am I being sarcastic?

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