Dubai house prices down 49% since peak

Posted by: G M Monday, 17 August 2009 12:53 PM[UAE] - UAE

God bless you Nick! You gave the simplest and smartest comment out of all the nonsense I read everyday when it comes to Dubai?s real estate. AB has been hammering us with poor articles with no substance whatsoever! One dodgy analyst predicts a further 10% drop or another one who feels the market has stabilized or a global bank that confirms that the prices are rising. The worst of all is the journalist who decided to make call on where the market is heading based on silly and fictional encounters with a real estate agents and property owners. I?m talking about Anil Bhoyrul and his ridiculous and worthless article ?Is this a second crash?? I was surprised to find quite a few readers appreciating this type of pointless journalism. What surprises me is that even the readers believe they can project where the market is heading. Some of them can?t even write a full proper sentence, but can confidently claim a further 20 or 30% drop in prices. I think Nick has summarized it better than any analyst or so-called expert. You can never call the bottom It?s not possible. You only know you have been at the bottom when you are back on the way up if you bought at the bottom you are lucky If you sold at the top you are lucky But you do not and cannot know at the time. The above is true for any asset class (equities, commodities) and not real estate only. Back in March 09, did anyone feel like we?ve hit the bottom of this global recession or we were even close to it. Today after nearly 6 month, everyone is taking about the march lows as the bottom and it?s becoming clear that we have seen the worst of this recession back in March. So don?t believe the financial analysts or the global investment banks, they are the ones who predicted that Oil will go up to $200 per barrel and have never seen this downturn coming. If you want to buy a home then go find yourself a good deal there are plenty out there!! If you take it as a long term investment like how it should be, then you should be confident that it will give you good returns in 3-5 yrs even if the prices dropped another 20% like every wanna-be analyst is predicting

Posted by: Mart Monday, 17 August 2009 10:24 AM[UAE] - Dubai. UAE

"I sold a villa in Meadows for 1000/sqft and bought a villa on 1 June 2009 in Jumeirah Islands for 4.4m [832/sqft] what I thought was a reasonnable price" You told us about the million dirhams profit you made on the new place, but you forgot to tell us how much "profit" you'd made on the Meadows Villa. Looking at the reductions there during the past year I can only hope you'd owned it for many years, else you'd be looking at quite a loss.

Posted by: Nick Sunday, 16 August 2009 6:59 PM[UAE] - UAE

It seems that the press will publish every press release issued in this place. So if someone says prices are down by 20% they will publish it. If someone says they are down by 305 they will publish it. This thirst for knowledge of when we're at the bottom epitomises the problem with Dubai - people want the bottom so they can jump in and jump out making a quick buck with little effort. This is the same with the share market which is up one day and then down as people cash their winnings. Real estate is a long term investment and trends beyond one or two months should be looked at - of course there will be winners and losers within any market whether its on the up or on the slide. You can never call the bottom Its not possible. You only know you have been at the bottom when you are back on the way up if you bought at the bottom you are lucky If you sold at the top you are lucky But you do not and cannot know at the time. let's look for a slightly more long term and robust set of statistics going forward - we dont need to know every tin pot agent's view on the market based on the 3 villas they sold last month....or do we?

Posted by: george tannous Sunday, 16 August 2009 3:49 PM[UAE] - United Arab Emirates

My earlier/first comment this morning stated 10 % operation workforce replacing the 100% construction workforce coming to end of their service as their project is completed by end of 2009. an example is the Metro project, as the construction team of circa 30,000 people is finished in early September, Serco [the operator/manager] move in with 3300 staff, thai is only 10%, and I would say that only 10/15% of this 3300 staff 350] will be in managerial position on a package that warrant staying in the new supply properties such as those between the beach and Al-khail Rd [the majority of Supply]. so the supply can not be taken by existing or new operators moving in as they can not afford it. Therefore the 20% drop is more likely to happen and even this may not fix the problem. labourforce and supervisors level people are normaly accomodated in areas such as Silicon Oasis and International City if not in staff specific accomodation in Al-qoz etc... and the price there is 20% below JLT or similar developments. but when we look at business bay [executive towers all vacant] Dubai Marina [JBR half vacant] Down town etc... as well as all the low density developments [jumeirah village, jumeirah park Sport City, Al Waha etc, the question remains ""where is demand coming from for those high end properties?????""

Posted by: Nfl Sunday, 16 August 2009 2:48 PM[UAE] - UAE

Its too early to say Dubai property market is stabilizing! Its going to further drop another 20% over this year and probably stay that level till year end and may pick up another 15% by 2010 1Q if the local market and world economy revive a bit and if new jobs are created in this part of the world. Number of properties that are either finished or getting final touches, are far too many. Its going to be 65% demand v/s 90% supply. 10% unfinshed projects.