Dubai overall debt at least $129.3bn, Credit Suisse says

Posted by: Rus Monday, 17 January 2011 3:46 PM[UAE] - UAE

Going back to what Khalid had mentioned about the healing of the market by 2013, I believe it will only be reaching the bottom by then. It's too early to talk about the rising prices again in 2013. At the end of the day we are in a really globalised market and Dubai is heavily dependent on situations and countries outside Dubai. Almost every country is experiencing a heavy debt and someone will be magically bailing all these countries out, but how and when thats the question.

Posted by: K Monday, 17 January 2011 12:49 PM[UAE] - UAE

Its not only Real Estate debt and if Dubai had gone for Concession type infrastructure projects with experts determining the need and size of the projects financed through a typical concession tenure, it would have been in much better shape now.

Posted by: Simon Monday, 17 January 2011 12:44 PM[UAE] - Dubai

Khalid...unfortunately you have adopted the 'in two years time' psychological 'comfort' language without actually recognising the economic factors that would need to be in place for the 'two years time' recovery you extoll.

Dubai's average GDP in a little over US$ 8Bln (last estimate I could find). Dubai owes in excess of US$ 126Bln. Dubai is in the same situation as Europe and the USA. Dubai relies on International funds to support its economy...especially tourism and Real Estate. If the supporters of Dubai's economy have no money...they will spend less here. Hence Dubai can not recover unless the rest of the world does. It is as simple as that.

Dubai can not recover and repay its debt burden within the next 10yrs...maybe 15-20yrs. Thats not to say, on the ground in Dubai, business will not recover. It will recover and it will feel like a recovery of sorts...just nowhere near the measure required to repay Dubai's debt burden.

Abu Dhabi NEVER gifted Dubai money. It was a loan.

Posted by: Mohamed Sunday, 16 January 2011 12:44 PM[UAE] - UAE

The debt amount is significant for sure. However, I believe that a key step to solve the problem would be to transfer, as much as possible, short term debt to long term.
Yes, there is over supply in real stat, but if the other economic sectors, which faired relatively good in 2010, can generate enough returns to secure refinancing - not to repay the debt - then we could be on a much better footing.
I think besides some bad investment that were made, the reliance on short term debt for long term projects caught Dubai by surprise. Looking at the bigger picture, a lot of countries around the world were/are in bad debt situations, but that?s never the end as some would suggest. I believe Dubai can get over this and learn a lot of valuable lessons at the same time.

Posted by: John Sunday, 16 January 2011 12:44 PM[UAE] - UK

The overseas media is largely ignoring the UAE these days as there are no actual facts coming out and Dubai's debt mountain isn't going to budge in a hurry. There is no reliable information about the property market, what is or isn't being sold or delivered and it has become clear overseas investors have gone elsewhere.