Dubai real estate among 'riskiest post war markets'

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Dubai is one of the "riskiest" property markets of the post war era, a senior analyst claimed on Monday.

Saud Masud, analyst at Swiss investment UBS, said problems of over-supply and population shrinkage with thousands of jobless expatriates expected to return home when the schools break up next week, would mean continued pressure on house prices.

“In my view Dubai's property risk profile appears to be one of the highest in the post war era and while one may debate the potential support factor from Abu Dhabi the fundamental oversupply and population dynamics risks are very much there,” he told Arabian Business.

He said the scale of Dubai’s real estate collapse was easily on a par with Hong Kong’s housing crash at the start of the decade - and boom and bust cycles in other markets such as Singapore and Ireland.

“While Singapore, Hong Kong, Ireland are considered property market comparables, Dubai is very unique due to its demographics, supply pipeline and relevance in the Middle East,” he added.

This follows Masud’s stark warning in a UBS research note two months ago that house prices in Dubai could plunge up to 70 percent from their peak in the fourth quarter of last year.

At the time, the bank predicted investors would return to the Dubai market in the second half of 2009 when prices would be at their most attractive.

Speculative interest saw prices rocket during Dubai’s six year real estate boom but investors fled after the global crisis last year - with liquidity also hampering mortgage availability.

However in a report last month, HSBC reported that agreed prices in Dubai rose four percent in April and five percent in May.

In Hong Kong the Asian financial crisis triggered a 70 percent collapse in real estate prices between 1997 and 2003.

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Posted by: ametis

Its healthy reading everyones opinions and analysis of Dubai, all the experts yet No One ever believed that the bubble would burst and all the Glittering cofetti there in, will shower down. Dubai like any other emerging markets was seen by many as the Gravy train that will keep going around in circles eternally and everyone will get a spoonfull...sounds like another Harry poter story. I came to Dubai 5 years ago, I liked what I saw and stayed, like many other places that gets popular, prices started to crep up, slowly but surely... Do I move on??, No I like it here so I stayed, I bought and sold and made money, than reality sets in that its out of hand, stop buying in Dubai hold back... Signs were there who remebers the earthquake tremmours that shook buildings in Sheikh Zayed Road??.. Anyay invetment is a risk, its another form of speculation, some you win, Some you loose.. Dubai for me is still attractive in many forms, Long Term investment and there are many opportunities if you think with your head and not with greed, it will be sttractive to Golf Lovers, once the exchange rate improves the Brits will be back by the Plane Load... Me I will be here for eons to come.........You will have to be pretty Lazy not to make Money in UAE

Posted by: BH

As much as we all luv a good dream, eventually the alarm goes of and we have to wipe our eyes and get out of bed. As a regular visitor to the UAE I have seen the rocketing rents and the massive building projects planned and underway, but could never figure out the maths, I mean who did the demographics on the numbers off people in a small country who could afford to rent let alone buy in the high end property developments. I see billboards with (twice as big as Hong Kong) etc etc and now it seems most of these sites have very little activity at all, the problem is that every is man made and therefore is at war with the natural elements of heat and dust and will break down to its original state (sand) if not maintained. Hence these huge high rises, (empty) and enormous villa estates will quickly feel the effects if not occupied and allowed to decompose. I would luv to see things turn out the way it was in the dream but sadly it is just not going to happen, I know of lots of people whom have had to leave the UAE because of work reasons and anyone that say that no one is leaveing mus be blind, you only have to drive around Dubai to see how much less traffic there is. The realestate companys and developers want everyone to believe that the market is on the recovery. It will take 10yrs to recover and maybe more. The only way to reduce the timeline is for landlords to stop trying to make a quick buck and look at long term investment and returns. by keep rents at a realistic and affordable price. When a 3 br flat in Abu Dhabi cost more to rent than a house on Sydney harbour then you know that it is unrealistic and I don't mean that in an offensive way as I luv the UAE but lets be honest is takes time (hundreds of yrs) for a city to mature and have the character of London, Paris, New York. and Dubai Abu Dhabi are no different. Let development slow to a marathon pace on a 100m sprint and it may just make it in the long run. Good Luck Brad

Posted by: Omar

I fully agree with Raj's comments 100%.

Posted by: Mohamed Djirdeh

Thanks Mr. Saud Masud your analysis is fair and focused on reality of Dubai property market. All of us, authorities and investors should wake up to this reality. This is what will assist us getting Dubai back on to it's position; instead of wasting our time on brokers and bankers who are still claiming 'all is sweet'. The gravy train is gone!

Posted by: Raj

My dear, Please believe me, nobody is willing to leave Dubai,No body hates Dubai.. All of us want Dubai to be transparent, impartial, clear in rules (yes to yes or no to no, not like that some time yes and some times nOOOOOO) Why one would not like Dubai......It has given us bread and butter. High life and many more!!Please try to understand the sentiment of people. Those who are leaving have a bitter truth to be analysed of. They have lost all the things, their property , job , earnings ....all....why !!Not because of Dubai..It is not Dubai who ruined them. It was global recesson started from Lehman Brothers in USA. All what these people want is to clear the visa policy, be liberal in giving visa for expats what was promised in 2003-4 . If you give visa without right to work ,how one would survive,Why donot you ever think of that and give your comment!!!You think that in that way you would be opposing Dubai!!!No, This is not the case. You should say what is correct. Donot consider them as your arch enemy if one dares opoose your views!!! Here, no body asks for citizenship, but show the world your humanitarian attitude! i think you may understand what I mean. If these things are improved, I understand , Dubai ,Abu Dhabi rather whole UAE is able to command the situation , property prices would bounce back, people would have faith in the system which is very important for any country upliftment. More people would flow, more building would be made, this would generate revenue and opputunities as it was earlier. Do you want to live here alone, if not what is the other way around. Simple!!!call other people as UAE was doing earlier . No one could survive in this world being alone. I am not comparing UAE with Chad or Somaliya rather we have to compete with Europe and other developed countries.Please reply if you still have some shots to be fired....All your views are welcome!!!!!

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