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Dubai is one of the "riskiest" property markets of the post war era, a senior analyst claimed on Monday.
Saud Masud, analyst at Swiss investment UBS, said problems of over-supply and population shrinkage with thousands of jobless expatriates expected to return home when the schools break up next week, would mean continued pressure on house prices.
“In my view Dubai's property risk profile appears to be one of the highest in the post war era and while one may debate the potential support factor from Abu Dhabi the fundamental oversupply and population dynamics risks are very much there,” he told Arabian Business.
He said the scale of Dubai’s real estate collapse was easily on a par with Hong Kong’s housing crash at the start of the decade - and boom and bust cycles in other markets such as Singapore and Ireland.
“While Singapore, Hong Kong, Ireland are considered property market comparables, Dubai is very unique due to its demographics, supply pipeline and relevance in the Middle East,” he added.
This follows Masud’s stark warning in a UBS research note two months ago that house prices in Dubai could plunge up to 70 percent from their peak in the fourth quarter of last year.
At the time, the bank predicted investors would return to the Dubai market in the second half of 2009 when prices would be at their most attractive.
Speculative interest saw prices rocket during Dubai’s six year real estate boom but investors fled after the global crisis last year - with liquidity also hampering mortgage availability.
However in a report last month, HSBC reported that agreed prices in Dubai rose four percent in April and five percent in May.
In Hong Kong the Asian financial crisis triggered a 70 percent collapse in real estate prices between 1997 and 2003.
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