GCC to see 'cautious growth' in 2010 - Emirates NBD

Chief economist says Qatar will be stand-out performer with 10% growth.

GCC economies are set to see an average growth of between 3-4 percent in 2010 compared to last year, senior executives at Emirates NBD, the region’s largest bank by asset size, said on Monday.

The bank predicted real GDP growth during this year of 2.5 percent for the UAE, 3.0 percent for Saudi Arabia, 1.5 percent for Kuwait, 3.0 percent for Oman, 2.5% for Bahrain, and 10.0% for Qatar.

By comparison, Emirates NBD said that more traditional markets would stagnate, with GDP growth for the Eurozone predicted at 1.0 percent, for the UK at 0.5 percent and Japan at 1.0 percent.

Growth was predicted at 2.5 percent for the US and a still-strong 10.0 percent for China.

“This will be a year of rehabilitation,” said Tim Fox, chief economist of Emirates NBD. “But it’s important to retain a degree of reality; there won’t be runaway growth and it will be relatively cautious.”

Emirates NBD said that it would be advising clients to have a strong balance of assets, and indicated that there were likely to be more mergers and acquisitions during the course of the year, with healthcare a notable possibility in this field.

Fox added that some of the reasons for its bullish forecast were the strong indicators emanating from regional economies about their own predictions this year. In the last week or so, Qatar has estimated its own growth at 11 percent, with Oman coming in at 3.7 percent.

“Although the global recovery is well under way, it is unlikely that economies will return to their trend growth rates before 2011,” Fox said.

“The next 12 months will likely see a continued recovery of the US dollar. However, investors will have to remain wary of rising bond yields and generally volatile trends in emerging markets. ”


Market Performance

Emirates NBD
0.0 0.0 (%)
Join the Discussion

Disclaimer:The view expressed here by our readers are not necessarily shared by Arabian Business, its employees, sponsors or its advertisers.

Please post responsibly. Commenter Rules

  • No comments yet, be the first!

All comments are subject to approval before appearing

Further reading

Features & Analysis
Banking on reforms in Kuwait

Banking on reforms in Kuwait

As Kuwait stares down its first deficit in 20 years, the Gulf...

Saudis face dilemma between size and pricing in debut bond sale

Saudis face dilemma between size and pricing in debut bond sale

Riyadh is under pressure to maximise the size of its international...

How technology is changing the UAE

How technology is changing the UAE

Free wifi in public spaces and remotely monitoring utility use...

Most Discussed