Index value of the Dubai Financial Market (May 2010)

The Dubai Financial Market General Index has closed as follows in the past four years:

Closing Price of 2007 - 5,931.95 Closing Price of 2008 - 1,636.29 Closing Price of 2009 - 1,803.58 Current value - 1,692.40

What figure do you estimate for the end of 2010? Think Tank Average prediction: 1,860

The Think Tank’s responses to this question were notably quick – as if all had already given it considerable thought.

The lowest prediction was 1,500, and the highest 2,200 - implying a degree of cautious uncertainty.

One member pointed out the Dubai stock exchange was so heavily influenced by the performance of two or three major stocks that the market was relatively easy to call, and there was much agreement.

Certainly, the average prediction of 1,860 would indicate that while there is some confidence the horror-conditions of 2008 are not about to revisit themselves on the Gulf’s most famous city, the confidence is brittle.

1,860 would be signal treading water – and makes 2007’s finish look like the ff of fantasy.