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Dubai house prices set to drop in Q4
by This email address is being protected from spam bots, you need Javascript enabled to view it on Wednesday, 3 December 2008
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Results 1 to 9 of 9
Posted on Thursday, 4 December 2008
It's Q3 prices
Posted by Saad (Colliers Employee) at 17:55 UAE time
Hi Everyone. I'm responsible for producing Colliers HPI and after reading your comments about my report I wish to clarify few things. The report covers Q3 2008. Q3 includes July, August and September of this year. At that time prices were not declining or what so ever. prices started to decline after cityscape which ended in October, therefore our figures are correct at the time. The second point I would like to clarify is that this is not a research. The numbers we use in our report come from mortgage providers in Dubai, therefore these are real, actual sale prices on properties being sold. unlike other research, this is not asking prices. It's also worth mentioning that the data or only available to Colliers not to any other firm. Again, this report cover Q3 prices not Q4.
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Fall in Dubai property prices
Posted by Potential Resident at 16:36 UAE time
The UK market has fallen between 10% (Land Registry figures) and 16% (Hilifax B.S.) in the past 12 months.
I expect to see a much steeper fall in Dubai property prices, over the coming months, simply because they were being traded as investment products, far more so than family homes.
Generally, the faster a commodity rises in value, the faster it falls in times of uncertainty.
I am considering relocating from the UK to the UAE and will certainly stick to the rental market for the next twelve months.
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This ball has yet to pick up speed
Posted by Aust at 13:19 UAE time
Reading outside the UAE, most assesments seem to be indicating a much greater fall in prices; up to 80% on "off plan" stuff.
When something was highly mortgaged as many of these were and the value falls to below the safe margin dictated by the mortgage agreement then the investor needs to pay cash to the bank. That, for example, could push the weaker investors into fire-sales of some appartments to pay the cash calls on the mortgages of the ones they consider to be more valuable. Those firesales depress the prices further causing another cycle.
Unless the government is planning to step in and start buying up units on the secondary market then the smart investor will surely be waiting until the dust settles and the prices have bottomed out.
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price drops
Posted by Paul at 10:44 UAE time
To be fair to colliers, what they are really saying is that when the figures for Q4 are released, they will show price falls. The data can only be released after Q4 has finished, so the fact that at the beginning of Dec colliers are announcing the data will show falls is basically an acknowledgement of what we all know is happening.
I expect like most property companies they will probably do their best to talk down the inevitability of what happens in Dubai now the bubble has well and truly popped. That 80% annual rise to Q3 would need a 45% fall to take back to where it was just a year ago. The economy a year ago was red hot, far more money, speculators, and optimism. That makes is reasonable to assume that now lending has dried up, the world economy is on the skids, oil is at 4 year lows and the bubble has well and truly popped in Dubai, we should expect much larger falls in the coming months.
There will be denial all the way down of course, but this is shaping up very similar to Singapore and Taiwan in the 90s. So falls could certainly hit 80%+ after 3-4 years and take 20 years to reach the peaks of earlier this year.
Let's not forget, the people who are most optimistic about Dubai prices stabilizing soon are the very same ones who just 3-4 months ago were saying that Dubai was immune and property would continue to increase in value with no chance of a crash. They are by and large salesmen who simply do not have a grasp of economics.
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Oh Really
Posted by Wakeup at 10:37 UAE time
Another example of the poor reporting from so called experts. Does colliers actually understand what is happening in the market or are they sticking their finger in the air and guessing which way the wind blows!
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Ready Properties in Demand will retain value
Posted by DG at 10:36 UAE time
Ready 3 & 4 bed villas in developed communities Dubai are hard to come by and are not subject to the same depth of value declines as being projected in these generic statements being made by Colliers.
Try renting one of these an you will find that with the credit squeeze the line of people wanting to rent has actually increased in size.
Villas in developed communities particularly in the middle end range of Dhs 4 to 8 Million remain the pearls in a landscape of falling values.
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House prices set to drop?
Posted by MB at 10:00 UAE time
No kidding!! Hardly ground breaking news. I believe this is called 'stating the bleeding obvious' seeing as we are at the end of Q4... What other revelations can Colliers provide? That Friday will follow Thursday this week? Well done chaps. Better have a lie down to recover from your hard work exposing the truth ...
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a little late
Posted by jimf at 09:21 UAE time
i admire colliers report and honesty that the market is set to fall (although late)... some agents, still maintain that it's a great time to enter and that the dubai market remains a great investment.
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Posted on Wednesday, 3 December 2008
Dubai house prices set to drop in Q4 - Colliers International
Posted by UK at 18:39 UAE time
I suggest Colliers International to research properly. The prices have already fallen and fallen pretty steeply. Their warning
" Property prices across Dubai are likely to fall in the fourth quarter" has come late and yet fails to provide correct picture.
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