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Dubai house prices, rents rose in June - Deutsche Bank
by This email address is being protected from spam bots, you need Javascript enabled to view it on Monday, 29 June 2009Posted on Friday, 3 July 2009
Omar's Rising Price of Oil
Posted by J Smith at 10:50 UAE time
Omar,
One other thing, you might want to check out this article on today's FT.com: http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/e0ae2b2a-66f7-11de-925f-00144feabdc0.html
The sole reason for the recent spike in oil prices has been disclosed as a rogue trader carrying out unauthorised trades (16m bbl compared to a usual volume of just 500,000). And of course others chased this spike pushing prices up.
This was wholly illusuory and the price has since fallen 10% to just over $66 bbl.
I hope you are beginning to see that not everything is what it seems...
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Posted on Thursday, 2 July 2009
Property Prices???
Posted by M. at 13:30 UAE time
Someone is offering Dh 700/sq ft. cash for anyone who wants to sell. He isn't getting any takers: as the article says, people are asking Dh 1285/sq ft., but they aren't getting it.
So what's the real price of real estate in this market?
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Posted on Wednesday, 1 July 2009
I'll have what he's having!
Posted by J Smith at 15:56 UAE time
Omar,
(1) NTMEX crude is just over $71 bbl; its not been close to $74 bbl since Sept '08 (when it was rapidly falling)
(2) the simple fact that you can phone and book a taxi and (a) get through first time and (b) have the taxi arrive within 5 mins are clear signs of the fact that people have left Dubai in droves. I have experienced this every day for the past 2 weeks whilst my car is in the garage.
(3) I challenge you to name one school that has over 100% occupancy (i.e. a waiting list) for the September 09 term.
(4) Our company recently presented 39 cheques, all from different sources; 34 of them bounced. I'd like to know where you think all of this "cash in the market" is being held.
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Fully Agree with perronegro
Posted by Omar at 10:08 UAE time
I fully agree with you Perronegro. It seems that some people do not want to see what you, Deutsche Bank and I are seeing.
They keep on saying that people are leaving but nobody just leaves!! ALL schools are over 100% - We are in July!!! and all streets are still FULLL with+48!!!
What are all people doing??!! Working and making money!
Biztrop, Nobody told you that you will be given a citizenship. What are you still doing here? Bcz it's much better than your country!?!
Very soon, real estate prices will double. Just check Gulf News section. Prices are rising and the market is doing relatively well. It twill boom 100% immediately after Ramadan.
Oil is 74$, very soon 100$. Lots of cash is around.This is a CRUCIAL factor. Wake-up
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House Prices Rise
Posted by M. Mouse at 08:09 UAE time
I would like to know on what Deutsche Bank based it's figures were are the facts to back up the comments?
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Posted on Tuesday, 30 June 2009
Reality Check
Posted by Harry Winston at 20:47 UAE time
Being a property owner in the UAE, i would like prices to be higher.But the reality now is that the Dubai Dream has vanished. The recession has shown us major flaws in the property market. The failure of authorities to respond in a timely and professional manner has negatively affected real estate. Its gone the way of UAE stock markets- in the dumps and will stay in the dumps. Having said that i just came back from Mumbai, India- The Real estate market is kicking in high gear, stock markets up 50%, highly professional,eductaed and motivated young population, no signs of recession- it is the exact anthesis of Dubai and UAE. Unless mortgage rates decline, loans become available, visa regulations rectified, rent caps removed i dont expect significant change in the UAE real estate market.
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More spin & hogwash!
Posted by Paul King at 17:23 UAE time
I totally agree with "biztrip." Don't listen to what these numbskulls have to say, just watch what they actually do! Are Deutsche Bank prepared to back their spin by offering loans at 90/10% loan to value? I doubt it! Obviously for a property market experiencing such a complete collapse, there will be periodic rallies & upturns. But with yet more supply to enter the market and demand falling as companies trim their cloth to the new market conditions, we should keep the property "crash-alert" flag flying high and clear!
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the word on the street
Posted by biztrip at 16:51 UAE time
When all you have to rely on is fabricated window-dressed data from analysts working within the UAE banks & estate agencies I believe the "word on the street" is a safer bet. Ask any parent, teacher, taxi driver, valet parking assistant, airline call centre staff, shop owners/keepers, hospitality staff....business is BAD and people are packing up their bags and leaving! I live in a compound with 52 villas, 7 are for sale, 5 are for rent and 8 more families are leaving Dubai for good. My son goes to a very reputable British school in Jumeirah, when he started in September there were 24 kids in his class.....when we did a count in Feb 2009 there were 19 kids remaining and a further 5 parents have confirmed that they are leaving for good in July 2009. I kid you not, these statistics are for real! I hang out with a circle of some 30 guys (aged 28-36), 11 have been made redundant and without exception all the remaining are not happy in their jobs and fear for the worst. Btw they come from a variety of verticals and nationalities and are all educated to degree level. When you compare my micro-small-world-statistics to any other western country things just don't seem to be as bad over the fence. The reason why....this is not home. When the going gets tough the tough get going. Home is where the heart is and for most westerners home is where we have freedom of speech, transparency, equality and citizenship (unlike in the UAE). Dubai was and still is a mirage. Until they start to respect & appreciate expatriates and treat us equally (and by this I also include maids, labourers, etc) this country will never prosper.
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is omar for real?
Posted by Mart at 15:22 UAE time
"Today, i visited one new real estate company called Smith & Klen and guess what: Business is better than usual."
They are new, but business is "better than usual"? What is "usual" if they are new?
Let me guess - they told you they'd have no trouble selling the property portfolio you've spent months trying to ditch?
The other day I visited a used car showroom and asked the salesman whether today was a good day to buy a used car. And guess what he said?
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but
Posted by paul at 12:49 UAE time
I am quite sure the Deutsche Bank data is correct, but monitoring actual sale prices when volumes are so low is not going to produce reliable figures for trend.
During the last crash in the UK for example some months saw rises during 1990, but the crash did not end and see annual price rises until 1995. But of course, vested interests called the bottom all the way through those five years!
There were plenty of 'Omars' of course, people who'd taken a bath in the crash desperately trying to talk up the market in the hope they could offload something from the crumpled remains of their portfolio. But talk is not enough to offset the billions in speculation that has evaporated. Dubai desperately needs a plan B, because an economy based on the pyramid scheme of building continuously is a completely dead concept now.
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Not Omar again...
Posted by The Consultant at 12:16 UAE time
Omar, your "anecdotal examples masquerading as FACTS" are becoming monotonous.
How do you know that Smith&Ken and Sherwoods are "very busy with transactions?" Because that's what their sales agents told you? Do you honestly think they'd say "no, the market is terrible, we're hardly doing any business at all"? They're trying to talk up the market, for goodness sake! Every property agent that I've spoken to in the last 6 months has only survived by moving into rental transactions as well - maybe that's what's keeping the S&K guys busy?
As for your comments that people not leaving - most schools are only just starting break up now, people are only just starting to leave for the summer and it will be very difficult to work out who is just going on holiday and who is not coming back - we won't have a clear picture of whether there really has been an exodus or not until September when the new school year starts.
There are some encouraging signs; it appears that there has been a slight pick-up in prices and transaction volumes but this is coming off a very low base. Furthermore, we are now entering the summer period, which is traditionally a difficult time for the property market, so it may difficult get any meaningful sales/rental data for the next few months.
The bottom line is that it is, whilst there are some encouraging indicators, it is far too early to say that a full-blown recovery has started and by trying to pretend that it has you are reducing your own credibility to zero. If we get to September/October and suddenly discover that the predicted exodus has no in fact occurred, maybe then we might see a sustained recovery. Until then, its all guesswork.
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We made the same comments when prices were coming down
Posted by perronegro at 11:18 UAE time
We did not believe and made the same comments when the prices were coming down.
What I can see now, the prices bottomed and now raising.
Can anybody find any advert, anywhere for a Springs Type 4M @ 900 k. This adverts were there around 4-5 months back. Just make a search on Gulf News Property Section and see how much is ASKING PRICE now.
This does not mean the number of transactions are increased, but means only there are less distress sales, and Owners are not willing to sale at that prices and buyers are raisng the bar. And this is happening in the beginning of the summer, when by now we should be travelling in SH. Zayeed with Camels as per some previous reports.
I agree with Bur Dubai Area is getting empty, this is because of the simple fact that people are moving to New Dubai to proper places (inclusive of Villas) with the same rent instead of the rat holes they used to leave.
Same applies to many residents of Sharjah working in Dubai. Now they are moving the places like Int City and Discovery Gardens with the same rents.
Now the time of Location, Location, Location.
Another fact: I live in JLT and moved in Dec 2008. I was one of the first ones to move in. Since that day I can see continuosly people moving in. And the tower is almost full by now.
Who are this people?
New Comers from abroad? Very few.
Movers from other locations? Most of them.
Just drive by yourself on a evening around JLT and see how many lights are on in the handed over towers. Or drive inside the public parking spaces to see the number of cars.
I repeat, we reacted in same way during the price crash. Reacted to negative comments, and missed the true facts.
I will recommend everybody to keep an eye of the Springs Villa prices. This area reacts first to any market movement. They came down first, when the market headed south and now they are coming up first.
It is like market indicator or RE index.
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Omar
Posted by dellboy at 11:07 UAE time
Thousands have left and thousands more will go once school examinations are over. The roads in Dubai are clear and the Metro could prove to be the biggest 'White Elephant' that Dubai has produced. Wake up Omar and see the real world around you.
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rent increase in june
Posted by vijay at 10:10 UAE time
most of the comments of the intl banks and people commenting are always for New dubai which are just new devlopments what about old dubai the souks and bazars on both sides of the creek.you have to be blind to ignore the facts of thise bazars where millions of dirhams of business is done local or re export which was and which till now is the life line of dubai,Just look at the new bldgs opp carrefour shindgah next to al raffa police station,bldgs on khalid bin waleed road (computer street) which are empty since last dec 2008 and one would realise the condition of the mkt.Look at a new glass bldg on khalid bin waleed road constructed for furnished apts business now advertising rooms with bedspaces for 700 750 dhms and one would realise how the desperate the real estate agents are to rent the bldgs and this bldgs are not in faraway areas but right in the heart of business districts of dubai.so the banks and the real estate agents painting a rosy picture of dubai real estate seems to me as fooling the new people and taking the new investors for a ride and bringing more damage to the reputation of dubai as business destination.
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Omar, oh dear????
Posted by bnk at 09:49 UAE time
Omar,
why can't you stop this non-sense and get real. Now a days as per yout comments on several real estate related articles, you and your family is going around the town to several real estate agencies to shop for apartments, villas etc., What are you doing man, are you a billionaire, shopping around in town for properties day in, day out.
Let us know? what is your profession? what you do for living?
You may be curious to know mine, I am a civil engineer, living in dubai from last 20 years, working in construction / real estate related companies.
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