Oil output could fall by 30m bpd by 2015 - Merrill

Report says the world needs to replace equivalent of Saudi output over two years.

Steep falls in oil production means the world now needed to replace an amount of oil output equivalent to Saudi Arabia’s production every two years, Merrill Lynch said in a research report.

Non-OPEC crude oil production may have already peaked and international oil companies faced the prospect of both younger and older oil fields declining steeply, the firm said in the report released on Wednesday.

It said the cumulative decline of global oil production from today could amount to 30 million barrels per day by 2015.

“As a result of these steep decline rates, the world now needs to replace an amount of oil production equivalent to Saudi Arabia’s production every two years,” said Francisco Blanch, head of global commodities research at Merrill Lynch.

The International Energy Agency expects an increase in non-OPEC output of 51 million barrels per day over the next seven years, the firm said, while it saw production in the range of 49 million to 50 million barrels a day in the same period.

But it said should the credit crunch push decline rates to six percent, non-OPEC production could decline precipitously towards 47 million barrels per day by 2015 from current levels.

It said oil production decline rates were a function of investment rates, as well as the size and age of oil fields. “All these factors point to steeper oil output declines going forward,” said Blanch.

Merrill Lynch said the combined declines in OPEC and non-OPEC countries alike could lead to pressure for higher oil prices as soon as 2010 or 2011, assuming the economic slowdown did not turn into a multi-year event where global oil demand was pushed down structurally for the next five years.

Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest oil exporter, said last month it will take the lead among OPEC members in trying to halt a six-month slide in prices.

Join the Discussion

Disclaimer:The view expressed here by our readers are not necessarily shared by Arabian Business, its employees, sponsors or its advertisers.

NOTE: Comments posted on arabianbusiness.com may be printed in the magazine Arabian Business

Please post responsibly. Commenter Rules

Posted by: Clifford J. Wirth, Ph.D.

Google: peak oil impacts and you will find a website that examines the research on alternative energies. There is no replacement for oil.

Posted by: Neil

It amazes me how- despite the scientific evidence out there- large scale economies aren't even considering renewable energy (I say this, because the decline in oil output in 6 years time is an apparent crisis according to the article). I know there's a global recession at the moment and that infrastructure typically is planned decades in advance, but come on! There's a global emergency going on. Instead of looking for more oil fields or (ironically) waiting for the artic circles to melt so the oil companies can get to more oil (which is evidence that this making the world inhabitable for human beings just isn't hitting home), why don't these companies start redirecting their resources to renewable energy r&d?

All comments are subject to approval before appearing

Further reading

Features & Analysis
Natural solution: Saudi's renewed plans meet growing energy demands

Natural solution: Saudi's renewed plans meet growing energy demands

Saudi Arabia has long toyed with the renewable energy sector...

Power to the people in Saudi Arabia

Power to the people in Saudi Arabia

As Saudi Arabia fights to control surging electricity demand...

The upstream movement: Oil producers must invest to avoid another crisis

The upstream movement: Oil producers must invest to avoid another crisis

While oil producers continue to debate a reduction in output...

Most Discussed