Results of Dubai house prices latest poll

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Dubai residential real estate prices are expected to fall a further 10 percent in 2010, a Reuters poll of 17 analysts showed. Following is a summary of the results of the poll conducted between April 5-12:\n

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1. When did/will Dubai residential property prices hit a bottom?\n

Out of the 17 respondents:\n

2 said already reached\n

3 said the first half of 2010\n

5 said the second half of 2010\n

6 said the first half of 2011\n

1 said the second half of 2011 or later.\n

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2. What is the percentage chance of a residential property market recovery\n

(when property prices start to pick up) happening in Dubai before the\n

end of this year?\n

The median of 17 forecasts was 10 percent\n

Forecasts ranged from 0 percent to 55 percent.\n

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3. a) What is your forecast for percentage change in average Dubai residential\n

property prices from the peak in the fourth quarter of 2008 until now?\n

The median of 17 forecasts was 53 percent down\n

Forecasts ranged from 35 percent to 75 percent down\n

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b) And how much will prices fall from now before stabilising?\n

The median of 17 forecasts was 10 percent\n

Forecasts ranged from 0 percent to 30 percent.\n

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4. On a scale of 1 to 10, where 1 is extremely undervalued, 5 is fairly valued\n

and 10 is extremely overvalued, what best describes the current average\n

level of Dubai residential property prices relative to fundamentals?\n

The median of 17 forecasts was 6\n

Forecasts ranged from 3 to 8\n

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5. What is your forecast for the full-year percentage change in average\n

residential rental prices?\n

For Dubai\n

In 2010 the median of 15 forecasts was for a fall of 10 percent\n

In 2011 the median of 14 forecasts was for a stabilization (0 percent)\n

In 2012 the median of 5 forecasts was for a rise of 3 percent\n

For Abu Dhabi\n

In 2010 the median of 14 forecasts was for a fall of 15 percent\n

In 2011 the median of 14 forecasts was for a fall of 3 percent\n

In 2012 the median of 5 forecasts was for a rise of 5 percent.\n

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6. What is your forecast for the full-year change in average residential\n

property prices?\n

For Dubai\n

In 2010 the median of 17 forecasts was for a fall of 10 percent\n

In 2011 the median of 14 forecasts was for stabilization (0 percent)\n

In 2012 the median of 5 forecasts was a rise of 3 percent\n

For Abu Dhabi\n

In 2010 the median of 15 forecasts was for a fall of 10 percent\n

In 2011 the median of 15 forecasts was for stabilization (0 percent)\n

In 2012 the median of 5 forecasts was for stabilisation. (0 percent)\n

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The analysts who participated in the poll represented the following organisations:\n

Al Mal Capital, Arqaam Capital, BofAML, CA Cheuvreux Middle East, CBRE, Deutsche Bank, EFG-Hermes, Global Investment House, HC Securities, JP Morgan, Landmark Advisory, National Bank of Abu Dhabi, NCB Capital, Prime Emirates, SICO, The First Investor and UBS.\n

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Tue 13 Apr 2010 04:36 PM