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Property prices set to slump up to 20%
Property prices in Dubai are set to slump by as much as 20 percent by 2011 from their peak in the first half of 2009 as housing supply begins to outstrip demand in the emirate, EFG-Hermes has said.
A shortage of housing supply due to delays in building homes has supported high prices this year, but with 70,000 units expected to come on stream in 2009 prices are expected to fall in the second half of next year, Egyptian investment bank said in a report received by Arabian Business late on Sunday.
"Given this large release of supply, we maintain our expectation that prices will peak in 1H2009 before starting to decline in the second half of the year, with a cumulative decline of 15-20 percent by 2011," the bank said in the report.
EFG-Hermes said the pace and timing of a future price correction could be more serious depending on factors such as negative sentiment, a potential transfer of liquidity from the real estate to equity markets and a reduction in foreign demand.
However the bank also said continued supply delays, which have plagued Dubai's real estate sector over the past year, could push forward the year of supply peaking to 2010.
The bank said delays in building homes - the result of a shortage of contractors and construction materials, as well as rising costs - have caused property prices in Dubai to rise as much as 10 percent more than expected this year.
It said residential property prices have jumped 14.4 percent so far in 2008, compared to an expected rise of 5-10 percent for the entire year.
EFG-Hermes is the latest bank to raise the prospect of a serious correction in Dubai's booming real estate market in the coming year, raising concerns that have weighed on real estate stocks in the UAE.
US investment bank Morgan Stanley said last month property prices in Dubai are likely to fall 10 percent by 2010 due to housing oversupply, and predicted the decline will hit shares of local and regional property firms.
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Posted by A, Dubai on 25 September 2008 at 19:53 UAE time
I dont think prices will correct in quality developments.. but I do believe rubbish projects at high prices and speculative payment plans will have difficulty finding buyers.. in the meantime the rest of the world is tanking so people need to be in a job creating region aka Middle East.. Anyone noticed they have just called it a correction but there is no base price? The media prints anything to cause a stir and investors are a gullible lot.
Posted by Paul, Dubai, UAE on 23 September 2008 at 20:00 UAE time
Sadly the ignorance displayed by some small real estate investors here will undoubtedly see them lose their shirts. The warning signs were ignored by many in the US, UK, Ireland and Spain who believed the lunacy could go on forever.
True, there were crash warnings for 2-3 years before it happened. But the fact it had not happened when first predicted did not mean it would not. There is a global recession now. Not good if your growth is to be based on
1) Oil (down 35% in two months)
2) Tourism (likely to boom in a global recession?)
3) Real estate (which relies on credit - and the credit crunch is now biting the UAE too)
Interbank rates are rising fast in the UAE. Foreign money is exiting the country at a rapid rate. The rate of economic growth has dropped rapidly. Inflation continues to rise.
Interesting that one poster uses Singapore and HK as 'positive' examples. Both markets crashed spectacularly in the 90s. Singapore house prices fell 80% in 18 months. Hong Kong prices are still some 20% lower than their 90s peak. These countries both have very limited land available, so a structural shortage. Dubai has huge swathes of empty desert. They can build for 30 years and never run out of land.
The fact is that even countries with a bright long term future can experience massive crashes, as Singapore and HK demonstrated. The clever money in the stock market can see it and is dumping real estate and banking stocks as fast as it can. Sadly it will be small inexperienced investors who sunk all their savings into the property bubble who will be left in at the end. The experts on the stock market have exited already.
Posted by kambiz, tehran, iran on 23 September 2008 at 12:37 UAE time
lenders are increasing and there is huge funds in Middle East. there is no way that prices goes down. and City Scape will prove that. just market is becoming more professional and selective.mean while speculations get managed so the trend will be more logical but not down ward.when there are no considerable agriculture, population or industries in this region the money will be parked in property. plus inflation and increasing demands are there too.
Posted by Taiseer, Dubai, UAE on 23 September 2008 at 11:35 UAE time
I am sure most of the respondents have been so far investors in Dubai's property market . Let them understand there is difference between Face and Real Values , I advise them to call the market and agent for the sale of the same property, they will come to know about Face Value and Real Value
Singpore , HK these have been very tiny state where they were not have land to build and expand their real estate while its just opposite here ,
So far this market went thru exponential growth now i think after completion million of homes in around , will slump and then solid and linear growth will start
Hype is fictitious , USA couldnt survive , Spain Slumped by 30% so rest is upto readers to understand
Posted by Saeed Ali, Sharjah, UAE on 23 September 2008 at 11:34 UAE time
Kambiz, Did you know about the spectacular property slumps in HK and Singapore ? Probably not.
So if Dubai is like Singapore, obviously they may also have a slump, if not in 1 year, maybe in 5-6 years?
Also, investors continually make mistakes, as we saw in the US crisis, until they make their mistakes, you hear "they are smart and will not make decisions which will make them lose money?"
But once they lose money, they keep quiet
Posted by kambiz, tehran, iran on 23 September 2008 at 10:20 UAE time
i think EFG Hermes and the others who says the prices will drop are mistaking and following old patterns. i think prices will go up even until 2020. look at the Hong Kong, Monaco, Singapore... this city is like them. if the government dont drive to a huge size the prices will go upper and upper. i believe. these developers here from around the world are not stupid. like Trump,..
Posted by Muhammad Irfan, Dubai, UAE on 23 September 2008 at 00:34 UAE time
After property prices doubling every year and it going to continue for another three years, i seriously doubt that a 20% fall in prices will make a difference.
The current demand is outstripping the current supply. Within three years this demand will equally increase and there will still be a shortage.
2007 was supposed to be the year, when property prices will cool down, did this happen?
Posted by Mary, Dubai on 22 September 2008 at 16:59 UAE time
It's really promissing. Rents go up by 78% in one year and will drop 20% in 2011??!!!. WOW isn't it amazing? I feel much better now. By then, one bedroom rent will be priced half million. And please stop selling those cheap reports about housing shortage. Dubai is a fake marketing and everybody starts knowing this fact.
Posted by Naz Hussain on 22 September 2008 at 16:33 UAE time
Is that the same EFG Hermes that have been saying this every year, for the last 2 years? Do these people really get paid to make crystal-ball predictions all day long? Nostradamus would have been a billionaire if he'd have worked for EFG!!!
Posted by Niranjan, Dubai, United Arab Emirates on 22 September 2008 at 11:10 UAE time
I have my serious doubts this will happen.
Demand will continue to increase, and in addition, vested interests will ensure that projects get delayed some more, as and when required, such that artificial scarcity is maintained for few more years.