Good Listener
Posted by Dan, Stockholm, Sweden on 24 October 2009 at 14:55 UAE time

As a Middle easterner I know the habits of the region and one of the less impressive ones is to think we know best no matter what the area.

One thing I’ve learned from some westerners is to listen, digest and then respond, or just listen without a need to respond. You don’t have to respond to everything in all areas being discussed. In a discussion, be humble and respectful.

Don’t get defensive or aggressive when the other parties opinion doesn’t match your views and there after try every trick to convince them that your point of view is the right one. This behavior in our regional culture is one of the reasons why we do not progress at the same rate as developed countries.

Some of us might think we are good listeners and debaters but when we aggressively try to answer everybody and have an answer (real or made up) to everything, then you will be called a wise guy, whether you like it or not.

Mounir, where are you standing?
Posted by Paolo C, Verona, Italy on 24 October 2009 at 14:01 UAE time
If you were an investor, or a subcontractor maybe you would be playing another music. Dubai should come down to the facts, open its books and show efforts to find solutions.

RE. Rescheduling Vs Default
Posted by SR on 24 October 2009 at 11:40 UAE time

Yes, rescheduling is not equal to defaulting! But in reality it is only an alternative to defaulting!!!!!

I'm gonna level with you here
Posted by Cash Flow Messiah on 24 October 2009 at 10:18 UAE time

Ok. I humbly withdraw from the personal attacks from here on. In my defense, I wasnt the one who started it.

Now, read my first post. I said - "Dubai (as a whole) is sure to bounce back eventually, but that wont be (solely) based on companies like Nakheel repaying their debts". Whereby I mean, it will take a lot more than Nakheels (possible, not definite) default, to affect Dubai as a whole. This cannot have any other interpretation but my endorsement of Dubais capability of making it, again. In any of my other posts, I never once said or even implied that delaying, indefintely leads to default. Yes, it MAY be treated as an indicator of a 'possible' default; thats business basics, but we dont have to believe that entirely since anything can happen. I, in fact, supported Nakheels move where I said. "From purely a business point of view, it makes sense for Nakheel to repay 'borrowed money' first. Local obligations limited to suppliers & contractors make of business transactions which may well be under dispute and/or negotioations (details of which people wont have), and are surely not 'borrowed monies'. OR maybe its a simple case of one step at a time", whereby I'm trying to keep a neutral opinion. I cant understand why you are getting so uptight & defensive for nothing said or implied.

The only thing I said, that made you flinch, was when I repeatedly asked you to qualify your own statement , “Dubai's inability to pay (which are false reports, by the way)”. I reiterate - how can you, so surely, defy a third party report? Is it that you have some facts to dispute the possibility of the reports being true? Or is it merely blinded support for the UAE, that gets you defensive everytime something is said against it? Also, with all the payment delays happening, do you now accept that the lowered credit ratings & lenders' current apprehensive attitude towards Dubai are somewhat justified? Or is it that you simply want top ratings and complete market confidence for Dubai, merely becuase you believe in Dubai?

With all that I have said, I am still fighting to understand how you gathered that I treat delays as defaults. I beg you to pin-point exactly where you felt that happened, or just admit that you wrongly assumed it, so we move on to healthy debate on this crucial issue.

Cash flow messiah wins!
Posted by Karim Fastak, Dubai, UAE on 24 October 2009 at 00:19 UAE time

wow

Mounir you have to give it to cash flow messiah, he really did a good job here. Your argument that Dubai will pay back its debt is ONLY based on the fact that it never defaulted before??? hmm, correct me if I am wrong, but isn't this the worst crisis the world AND Dubai have faced in a long long time? None of us, neither Dubai have ever been in this situation, so based on this, history does not allow us to predict the future, so Dubai not defaulting in the past does not mean it can't happen in the future. Furthermore, every defaulter never defaulted before the first time he defaulted, does this makes sense?

We all love Dubai, I've been here for years, I want to stay here for years, It is a great place, but it will come back to greatness only with transparency and humility, and not by claiming invincibility when the biggest in the world have trembled!

Wiser than a 6 yr old
Posted by Cash Flow Messiah on 23 October 2009 at 22:53 UAE time

Dear Dan,

Our friend Mounir is definitely wiser than us, cause clearly we are 6 yr old dudes v/s a 12 yr old.

There is something Mounir knows about something that he, with such strong conviction, speaks about that we 6 yr olds just cannot understand, it seems. Clearly, the schools we graduated from aren't as good as his. My school of economics, as Mounir discovered, is probably a hole-in-the-wall institution.

His oh-so-prestigious school though has taught him the correct methods of debate, which are -

1. When asked a queston, reply with another question.
2. When counter-attacked, reply with rhetoric.
3. When questioned about your rhetoric, reply with an unrelated answer.
4. When cornered, behave like the other person doesnt know what he is saying.

I wish I graduated from this one instead of mine.

AWAIT YOURS MOUNIR.

personal attacks again eh?
Posted by Mounir, abu dhabi, UAE on 23 October 2009 at 22:11 UAE time
Since you have a habit of not reading my points from beginning to end, ive decided to take on the same approach and start with arguing the first thing u say, and stop there and accuse u of dancing around the issues.

so here it goes:

No one said that delays are the same as defaults, but if you keep treating delays as if they are defaults, then you are essentially saying that a delay/rescheduling, is indeed a default. Either change your wording or accept that you said that, admit it to yourself, and move on so we can argue the next point.

As for Dan: brown nosing does no one any good. If someone gives a dog a bone, they dont really want to know if it likes it.

Give it up
Posted by Dan, Stockholm, Sweden on 23 October 2009 at 20:19 UAE time

Guys, just give it up. This guy, Mounir, is wiser then all of the people on this blog. Person after person has tested his knowledge and failed. We all have to acknowledge his wisdom.

Lost in agenda?
Posted by Cash Flow Messiah on 23 October 2009 at 20:05 UAE time

Guess I'm not done here. 12 yr olds like you need to start with basics.

Firstly - Nobody here said 'delays are the same as defaults', I certainly didn't. I dont know where you got that.

Secondly - 'No Dubai company rating has been brought down to junk'. You seem to be getting defensive about stuff that is not being thought or said.

Thirdly - It seems you have bad memory as well. Try to remember.....no wait, I'll copy-paste what you said some comments ago - "The problem is that Dubai has NO history whatsoever in late debt payments" - I gave you multiple examples to answer that. You further said, "This is similar to a credit report in the US: if you make your payments in time, or before time, and in full; you raise your credit score. It takes one missed payment for your score to fall and lenders to question your ability to pay back any future loans." - my examples, and you affirming them, prove that Dubai companies have faced a lowered credit rating for exact same reasons you have given above. Then you said, "In the Dubai case, what we have is No missed payment yet lenders questioning Dubai's ability to repay its debt" - if you really think lenders will happily accept a delay in payment (a delay of 1 year for a 3 year bond!!) without suspecting probable default and downgrading credit ratings, I think you should ask your Economics professor if he missed on teaching you some basics of business. Or is that common sense? Er, how would I know......I'm not the 12 yr old here.

Finally - Dude, you have failed again, to answer the main question - can you qualify the comment on “Dubai's inability to pay (which are false reports, by the way)”? I dont think you can. And I'll tell you why I think so. Cause clearly you dont have any evidence to support your own statement. But thats ok. I dont expect any more from a 12 yr old.

talk about what you dont know.
Posted by Mounir, abu dhabi, UAE on 23 October 2009 at 18:29 UAE time
I see how this is; you cannot argue against something i said so you resort to childich name calling and blithering rhetoric that makes absolutely no sense and has no relation to what is being discussed.

Let me see if i can make this as simple as possible for someone with your peanut sized brain: loan defaults are NOT the same as loan reschedules. Yes, they do play a part in lowering the credit rating, but - as far as i know - no Dubai institution has had its rating brought down to Junk and no Dubai institution has defaulted on its loans.

When you are capable of underestanding the difference between default and reschedule, come and talk to me.