Value of the euro against the dirham (May 2010)

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Today, €1 = AED4.5. What value do you forecast by end of this year?

Think Tank Average prediction: AED4.5

While three panelists predicted the euro weakening to levels as low as 4 dirhams, the strongest prediction was 5.2 dirhams.

There was much vigorous debate on the state of Europe – Greece and the other PIIGS particularly - and whether or not Germany would continue to bail out struggling members of the eurozone if the need arose.

One panelist said he could envision eurozone countries deserting the euro in favour of a return to previous individual currencies, provoking more discussion about the viability of a European single currency.

Another panelist pointed out that although the euro was unlikely to fare well over the coming months, the current focus on it had allowed the ailing dollar a little time out of the spotlight.

The consensus quickly reached was that a floundering dollar would see the euro holding something approaching its current level against it until the end of year at least.

The dirham, then, tied as it is to the dollar, could expect to be worth the same as it is now against the greenback. The euro may be sick - but the panel felt the dollar was no healthier.

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