Dubai rents forecast to fall by further 4% over next 12 months

Core Savills also says Dubai sales prices are expected to rise over the next year off the back of landmark developments being launched
Dubai rents forecast to fall by further 4% over next 12 months
Dubai, real estate, skyline, property
By Staff writer
Mon 19 Dec 2016 02:01 PM

Dubai residential rents could fall by up to 4 percent in the next 12 months, according to the latest market outlook for 2017 from real estate outfit Core Savills.

Tenants in outer areas, such as Jumeirah Village and Dubailand, are expected to see rents drop by 2-4 percent as more new developments are delivered.

However the report added that limited new supply, coupled with consistent demand, will keep rents in prime and central residential districts flat throughout 2017.

The report comes after a year of softening in the rental market across the board, with apartments in Business Bay (-3 percent), The Greens (-2.5 percent), Discovery Gardens (-2.5 percent) and Dubai Marina (-2 percent) all showing signs of contraction.

Jumeirah Lake Towers (JLT) and Jumeirah Village were the only districts to mark a marginal rise (1 percent), the report showed.

It added that villa rents also displayed drops, with Palm Jumeirah and Arabian Ranches (-5 percent); and The Springs and The Meadows, Al Barari and Emirates Hills all down by 3-4 percent.

Core Savills CEO David Godchaux said: “We continue to see rents in lease renewals to be market down or at least see no change. The trend of tenants moving out to outer areas, trading connectivity for larger units, exists, however, it is still slow as the cost offset doesn’t match up to the inconvenience and charges incurred.”

The report said Dubai sales prices are expected to rise over the next year off the back of landmark developments being delivered such as Dubai Water Canal, coupled with continued infrastructure spending on a robust pipeline of projects like Al Maktoum Airport, Dubai Parks and Resorts, Dubai Creek Harbour and Bluewaters Island, leading up to Expo 2020. 

Godchaux added: “Considering the current drivers and deterrents illustrated, we predict an uptick in Dubai sales prices in 2017 as a revival is clearly underway, however, an overall rise is expected to be very gradual.

"We foresee few submarkets to underperform - particularly the affordable and low-mid market segment are likely to be negatively impacted by the large amount of pipeline supply. Nonetheless, this effect may relatively balance out with the overall positive market sentiment coupled with the fact that developers continue holding back stock to align demand with absorption.”

Over 20,000 units are forecast to be delivered in 2017, with just 19 percent expected to be of prime residential stock, compared to over 30 percent in 2016.

“Although lagging in recovery, limited supply and sustained demand is expected to cast steady upward pressure on the prime segment by mid-2017,” added Godchaux.

The report said that while a strong dollar and the continuing impact of Brexit in the UK may affect the buying power of traditional investor nationalities, there is confidence that GCC and other regional nationalities will continue to invest in Dubai.

Godchaux said: “We expect the continuing interest from investors to capitalise on the bottoming market, particularly for high yielding districts and mid-market segment within the price range of AED0.8-2 million, to push transaction activity upwards. 

“Off-plan apartment projects in Jumeirah Village and Dubai Sports City, especially those nearing completion, are enticing end-user occupiers as both these areas offer projects with better facilities and larger layouts.

"Prime apartments in Palm Jumeirah, particularly on the trunk, are expected to see steady off-plan activity in the run up to delivery due to better connectivity and access to infrastructure. However, a similar response with may not been seen for comparable projects located further away on the crescent.”

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