By Gavin Davids
Emerging markets of India and China driving emirate’s recovery, says Dr Nasser Saidi
Dubai’s economy will grow between 4 and 4.5 percent in 2011, the DIFC’s chief economist has said, outstripping forecasts by the International Monetary Fund and Standard Chartered.
Calling the IMF’s prediction of 0.5 to 1 percent growth “too conservative,” Dr Nasser Saidi said he expected Dubai to rise on the back of a global economic recovery, driven by the emerging markets of India and China.
“All the factors that had negatively affected Dubai during the financial crisis have been reversed. We now have higher oil prices, with prices touching $90 a barrel, which helps the whole region,” he told Arabian Business on the sidelines of an event in Dubai.
“Trade has picked up globally, but particularly in Asia, and Dubai is strongly connected to Asia. India is our number one trade partner; the second is China,” he added.
Earlier this month, Standard Chartered said that it expected Dubai’s economy to grow by 1.5 to 2 percent next year, helped by expansion in the services, trade and tourism sectors.
“With global trade looking unlikely to sustain the sharp rebound seen in 2010, re-exports and the logistics sector, of critical importance to Dubai, will be only moderately positive for growth,” said Standard Chartered economist Shady Shaher in a report.
According to Standard Chartered, Dubai has an estimated $18bn in sovereign and quasi sovereign debt maturing in 2011. Many of Dubai’s state-owned firms have struggled to restructure debts in the wake of the global crisis and a emirate-wide real estate collapse.
Despite this, Saidi said, Dubai’s long-term investments remained solid.
“The fundamental point, I think, is that Dubai in particular, has made the right types of investment in infrastructure and logistics to benefit from the recovery of the global economy. So on that basis, I think we’ll see a strong pickup of growth in Dubai,” he said.
This guy is the same one who said UAE has the best corporate governance - I don't think he has ever read any annual reports - almost every third local guy on a board sits on the boards of multiple financial institutions be they mortgage companies, banks, private equity firms etc. The reason why the UAE continues to sink is because people make statements that carry no empirical evidence - it will take decades to recover lost opportunities and real estate is totally dead.