Euro dips on S&P threat; RBA cut hurts Aussie dollar

Despite the downgrade threat, traders find it hard to offload the euro more aggressively
Euro dips on S&P threat; RBA cut hurts Aussie dollar
Following the RBA cut, the Australian dollar moved a little further away from its peak last week of $1.0335
By Reuters
Tue 06 Dec 2011 10:15 AM

The euro dipped on Tuesday after Standard & Poor's said it may carry out a mass credit downgrade of euro zone countries if their leaders fail to move decisively on solving the region's debt woes at a summit later this week.

Risk currencies came under further pressure after the Reserve Bank of Australia in a widely expected move cut rates by 25 basis points and left the door open for further easing, sending the Australian dollar to $1.0190, down from a peak of $1.0305 hit overnight.

The unprecedented warning to downgrade 15 countries including top-rated heavyweights such as Germany and France came hot on the heels of a Franco-German initiative, to be discussed on the Friday summit, to impose budget discipline across the euro zone through treaty changes.

Despite the threat, traders found it hard to offload the euro more aggressively and let it hover at $1.3371, above some vital support levels, but down from Monday's high of $1.3487, and cautiously waited for a European Central Bank meeting on Thursday.

"You can see that the EU leaders are trying to get their act together, but even if their plans are realised, it's not going to improve their dire finances overnight. This is going to be a drawn-out process," said Koji Fukaya, chief FX strategist at Credit Suisse, adding that the euro will not easily get any serious respite.

"Italy and other countries have embarked on belt-tightening measures and that has already seen a positive reaction from the markets, but doubts about the implementation of these policies linger. The move by S&P partly reflects these worries."

The euro avoided a sell-off as traders hoped a summit agreement, together with deficit-reduction steps by debt-laden countries would pave the way for the ECB to move more aggressively to calm the turbulent euro zone bond market.

The bank has so far been reluctant to buy up bonds of heavily indebted states, concerned this would take the pressure off them to sort out their finances, but signalled it may change its stance, depending on what EU policymakers come up with.

Still, any bounce is likely to be limited to short-covering, and levels around $1.3550 may be the extent of any near-term rally, traders said. "What everybody probably thinks is that the euro is still not a currency you want to buy," said a trader for a Tokyo brokerage.

More optimistic analysts suggested the euro may correct back to $1.3729 or even as high as $1.3851, respectively 50- and 61.8-percent retracements of its decline in November.

Stop-loss euro offers were spotted right below session lows, around $1.3350-60, in an area marked by a moderate support level at the Sept. 26 low of $1.3360.

Following the RBA cut, the Australian dollar moved a little further away from its peak last week of $1.0335. After the bank said "the inflation outlook afforded scope for a modest reduction in the cash rate", some analysts suggested a further cut by 50 basis points by March is likely.

"It's a good decision and it recognises the slowdown in the global economy has developed some further momentum, particularly in our region," said Paul Brennan, head of market economics at Citi.

"The inflation outlook for Australia is consistent with the 2 to 3 percent target. So that gives the Reserve Bank a little bit more room to nudge rates down further into the neutral zone," he said.

A sustained break of the $1.0200 level would target Thursday's 1.0150 low, traders said.

With the euro's downside limited, the dollar index struggled to make much headway. It drifted up 0.1 percent to 78.705. Against the yen, the greenback edged up to 77.78, but, as during the last couple of sessions, struggled to break above the 78.00 yen barrier.

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