By Elizabeth Broomhall
Analysts say lack of progress on fuel subsidies increases risk of petrol shortfall in 2012
The UAE could see more fuel shortages next year if no federal action is taken to help petrol retailers carry the cost of subsidising oil prices, analysts have said.
The Gulf state has dragged its heels over increasing the cost of petrol in the wake of the Arab Spring, despite $100 oil spurring more than six days of fuel shortages in June across stations.
Dubai-owned Emirates National Oil Co (Enoc) broke ranks in June to criticise the government-set petrol cap and to lobby for a change in the system. But analysts say negotiations on the issue have ground to a halt.
“The situation is at a complete standstill,” said a Dubai-based energy expert. “If international oil prices continue to rise in the next six months and no agreement is reached, there are likely to be [more] shortages.”
It was speculated Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (Adnoc) would take over Enoc petrol stations in the north after the summer’s fuel shortages, but this has not been confirmed.
“Enoc has continued to raise alarm bells by declaring its willingness to cut supplies to Dubai customers as it continues to burn through cash. The [only] change on the ground in the northern emirates is that Adnoc is enlarging its downstream presence,” the analyst said.
“All discussions are behind the scenes. Abu Dhabi has not issued any public proclamations as of yet. The status quo continues with petrol prices dictated by the federal government and retailers carrying the financial burden.”
Three of the UAE's four fuel retailers – Enoc, its subsidiary Eppco and federally-owned Emarat - have made losses for many years. Adnoc has been largely unaffected because its upstream operations and vertically integrated supply system allow it to absorb any potential losses.
Enoc said in June it could not continue to bear the shortfall between fuel prices and the heavily subsidised cost at the pump, arguing it was “not sustainable or viable for the company.”
The retailer expects an AED2.7bn ($735m) loss this year.
The UAE has long subsidised fuel prices in an effort to cut living costs for residents, at a cost of millions of dollars a year. The Gulf state increased prices twice at the pump between April 2010 and January 2011, but scrapped a third planned rise in the wake of regional political upheaval.
Dubai, which is recovering from its 2009 debt crisis, spent just over AED5.7bn on various subsidies including energy and other transfers in 2010, according to International Monetary Fund data. Abu Dhabi spent AED22.2bn - but its budget is more than four times the size of Dubai's.
The government has made efforts to offer short-term solutions to its retailers, including raising the capital of indebted fuel retailer Emarat by 50 percent to AED9bn ($2.45bn) in June.
But analysts warn cash injections or other short-term support will not be sufficient for retailers to maintain reliable fuel supplies over the next 12 months, particularly if oil prices increase.
“Unless oil prices fall sharply, this will definitely be a continuing issue as the financial burden on the petrol retailers is too great,” said UAE-based energy analyst Robin Mills.
“These retailers need some kind of government intervention - whether that is direct subsidy payments, price rises, ADNOC taking off some of their operations, or some other arrangement.”For all the latest energy and oil news from the UAE and Gulf countries, follow us on Twitter and Linkedin, like us on Facebook and subscribe to our YouTube page, which is updated daily.
Just raise petrol prices and get it over with. Poorer locals can get government handouts if it is such a concern; we see that done with DEWA. I am sure this is not the first country to raise petrol prices.
The country which is rich in petrol is raising the petrol prices... other countries we can understand that they have to buy from market but what about UAE they don't have their own petrol?... why they cannot build more refinery to generate more petrol and make the pricess of petrol less??? Here in UAE almost everyone has car and ppl uses car for travel as the public transport like taxi is costly... the metro is for internal dubai only... think about the salary ratio in uae; is it increasing as compare the rates of other day to day items increases.... the gov is very rich and has to build more refinery to produce more petrol.....
Because refineries cost money? Lot of it, upfront. Last time I checked that was an issue, maybe not for Abu dhabi but certainly for Dubai.
As SAM pointed, the only solution are realistic prices a nd a fall in consumption. Of course that will never help.
Agree with SAM & Telcoguy. Raise petrol prices to a reasonable limit. Provide handouts/cash incentives/coupon for locals. Open up the vehicle markets for Hybrid cars (such as Toyota High Lander, Toyota Prius,...) and Electrical cars (such as Chevrolet Volt, ...). Put triple customs tax on 4WDs or cars with more than 4 cylinders and 2.0L engine powers.
Another AED 2.7 billion subsidy I think not, there are other obligations more pressing, put the prices up. Presumably there is a difference between an Emirati Identity Card and that of an expatriate, use that as a petrol discount card for UAE nationals.
Real overheads are real overheads. More people will use public transport. Cost of taxis will go up unless the government provides discounted fuel to them too or converts vehicles to alternative power sources, goods transportation cost will rise, so retail prices will rise. Sales of 'gas-guzzler' vehicles will diminish in the interests of carbon emission count and there will be less cars on the roads in general at least for a good while. Sales of small cars will go up of course.
A population gets used to extra costs and decides whether to live with it or move on. That's life.