Global demand for oil and gas could continue to grow until 2050, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Wednesday, marking a reversal from its previous predictions of a rapid shift towards cleaner fuels and suggesting that the world is unlikely to meet its climate targets.
The IEA, which advises Western governments on energy security, has faced pressure from the United States to refocus on traditional energy supplies.
Under President Donald Trump, the White House urged American companies to expand oil and gas output. During the Joe Biden administration, the agency predicted that oil demand would peak before 2030 and argued that no further investment in fossil fuels would be necessary to meet global climate goals.
Trump’s Energy Secretary, Chris Wright, criticised the earlier projections, calling them “nonsensical”. The IEA is funded by its member countries, with the US as its largest contributor, and its forecasts play a key role in shaping national and corporate energy strategies.
In its World Energy Outlook 2025, the IEA said that under its “current policies scenario”, which reflects existing government actions rather than climate ambitions, oil demand is expected to reach 113 million barrels per day by 2050, around 13 per cent higher than in 2024. Global energy demand is forecast to rise 15 per cent by 2035.
The agency last used the “current policies” model in 2019 before shifting focus to scenarios aligned with clean energy transitions and net-zero commitments. This year’s report dropped the pledges-based model entirely, saying too few countries had submitted credible new climate targets for the 2031–2035 period to form a reliable picture.
Under its “stated policies” scenario, which includes proposed but not fully implemented measures, oil demand would peak around 2030. The IEA stressed that its scenarios represent potential outcomes rather than forecasts.
The report also predicts a sharp increase in liquefied natural gas (LNG) capacity, with new projects boosting supply by 50 per cent to 1,020 billion cubic metres by 2050. The surge will be driven partly by power demand linked to data centres and artificial intelligence.
Despite these developments, the IEA said global temperatures are expected to rise beyond 1.5 degrees Celsius in all scenarios, only falling in its net-zero pathway if carbon removal technologies are widely adopted.
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