Electricity consumption in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) has tripled since 2000 and is set to climb another 50 per cent by 2035, adding the equivalent of Germany and Spain’s current demand combined, according to a new International Energy Agency (IEA) report.
The report, The Future of Electricity in the Middle East and North Africa, highlights how the region’s growing populations, rising incomes, and rapid urbanisation are driving energy use — with cooling and desalination alone expected to account for around 40 per cent of additional demand over the next decade.
Other key factors include industrialisation, the electrification of transport, and expansion of digital infrastructure such as data centres.
MENA electricity demand
Today, oil and natural gas dominate MENA’s electricity mix, supplying more than 90 per cent of generation. But policies across the region are set to reduce oil’s role to just 5 per cent of output by 2035, down from 20 per cent today.
Natural gas is projected to meet half of the new demand growth, while solar PV capacity is expected to rise tenfold, boosting renewables to around 25 per cent of total generation.
Nuclear capacity is also set to triple.
IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol said: “Demand for electricity is surging across the Middle East and North Africa, driven by the rapidly rising need for air conditioning and water desalination in a heat- and water-stressed region with growing populations and economies.
“The region has already seen the third largest growth in electricity consumption globally since the start of the century, after China and India.
“To meet this demand, power capacity over the next 10 years is set to expand by over 300 gigawatts, the equivalent of three times Saudi Arabia’s current total generation capacity.
“Based on the policy plans of governments across the Middle East and North Africa, the region is set to steadily shift away from using oil for electricity generation, with natural gas, solar and nuclear all expanding. This will change the power mix considerably, with implications for global energy balances and emissions.”
Power sector investment in the region hit $44bn in 2024 and is projected to rise by 50 per cent by 2035, with nearly 40 per cent earmarked for grids.
This aims to cut transmission and distribution losses, currently double the global average.
The IEA also modelled a slower diversification scenario. If countries fail to meet their targets, oil and gas demand for electricity generation would rise by more than a quarter by 2035, reducing export revenues by $80bn and adding $20bn to import bills.
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