A simple analysis of risk factors best predicts the development of type 2 diabetes in middle-aged adults, according to findings published in the Archives of Internal Medicine.
“Prediction of chronic conditions like type 2 diabetes mellitus that have a definable onset can help to guide interventions,” Dr Peter W. F. Wilson, of Emory University School of Medicine, Atlanta, and colleagues write. “Prediction rules for type 2 diabetes have been developed, but we lack consensus for the most effective approach.”
The team estimated the 7-year risk of type 2 diabetes in 3,140 middle-age subjects who were an average of 54 years old. Most subjects were overweight, and 12.7% had impaired glucose tolerance at the beginning of the study.
The team developed prediction models for type 2 diabetes that started simply and progressed to greater levels of complexity. During the study, 160 new cases of type 2 diabetes developed among the subjects.
They team began with a personal model using characteristics known to each subject (such as age and weight). They then developed a clinical model by adding measurements such as metabolic syndrome traits.
Finally, the researchers developed complex clinical models that included all of the previous elements plus a variety of tests, such as the two-hour post-oral glucose tolerance test, and the Gutt insulin sensitivity index.
The personal model variables, with the exception of sex, were significantly predictive of type 2 diabetes, the researchers report. Parental history of diabetes and obesity remained significant predictors in the simple clinical model.
No further improvements were provided by the complex clinical models in predicting diabetes risk.
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