So-called “friendly fraud” – when legitimate customers dispute valid purchases – is projected to rise by 25 per cent between Thanksgiving and Cyber Monday, according to new analysis by ACI Worldwide, a leading global payments technology company.
Based on billions of e-commerce transactions processed worldwide, ACI’s findings highlight refund and chargeback abuse as one of the fastest-growing threats to retailers, costing businesses $103 billion in 2024 alone. The average transaction value linked to friendly fraud during the 2025 holiday season is expected to reach $291, up 21 per cent year-on-year.
“These numbers are staggering and show just how bold consumers have become,” said Erika Dietrich, VP of Analytics & Optimisation, Payments Intelligence at ACI Worldwide.
“Refund abuse and friendly fraud have surged, driven by frictionless e-commerce and amplified by social media. Platforms spread so-called ‘refund hacks,’ making misuse appear socially acceptable, while merchants bear the financial burden.”
ACI noted that instant refunds, free returns and omnichannel retailing have created vulnerabilities that opportunistic consumers exploit.
According to ACI, overall e-commerce transaction volume is expected to rise 27 per cent year-on-year during the Black Friday–Cyber Monday period, with mobile shopping up 30 per cent. The company anticipates a chargeback rate of just 0.04 per cent, as fraudsters shift increasingly toward “friendly fraud” tactics rather than outright payment theft.
The findings underscore growing concerns among merchants that traditional fraud prevention systems are no longer sufficient.
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