The UAE’s retail sector will grow from an estimated $21.5bn this year to $28.1bn by 2015, according to a new report by Business Monitor International.
Retail sub-sectors predicted by BMI to show strong growth over the forecast period include over-the-counter pharmaceuticals, with sales expected to increase by more than 30 percent to $420m by 2014.
“Key factors behind the forecast are strong underlying economic growth (despite the recent problems in Dubai), increasing household consumption, growing acceptance of modern retailing concepts and expatriate wealth,” the report said.
The report added that car sales are forecast to rise by more than 20 percent, from an expected $12.8bn in 2011 to $15.45bn by 2014.
It said sales of consumer electronics will increase from a forecast $3.2bn in 2011 to $3.9bn by 2014, a rise of more than 19 percent.
The UAE’s consumer electronics market is one of the largest in the Gulf, accounting for close to 40 percent of regional spending.
Food sales are predicted to rise by nearly 25 percent to be worth $9.5bn by 2014.
BMI said that retail sales across the Middle East and Africa (MEA) countries in 2011 were predicted to amount to $196.6bn.
The report added that the UAE’s nominal GDP in 2011 is predicted to be $299.1bn, with growth of 3.9 percent predicted for the year.
BMI said it expected average annual GDP growth of 3.9 percent between 2011 and 2015.
Average household spending power in the UAE stands at $14,400 per annum, according to property consultants Colliers International, with Emirati households accounting for the lion’s share of this spending, with an average of $23,000, while Western, other Arab and Asian households have an annual spending power of $19,500, $13,500 and $10,000 respectively.
“Tourism is also a massive factor in stimulating retail growth, with the UAE expecting the number of tourists to have totalled more than 11m in 2010,” the report said.
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