The Middle East, besides Russia, has emerged as the pivotal market for China’s automotive exports, surpassing North America and Europe in volume for the first time, an industry report said.
This shift comes as China continues to flex its muscles in the global automotive-export market, even amid the ongoing global tariff storm gripping the industry, according to the report by AlixPartners, a global consulting firm.
The report said China’s exports soared 23 per cent to 6.4 million passenger vehicles in 2024, more than 50 per cent above second-ranked Japan.
Russia and Middle East lead
AlixPartners, however, said it expects growth to moderate to 4 per cent in 2025 as tariffs ripple through the market.
Russia and the Middle East together accounted for 35 per cent of China-origin vehicle exports in 2024, surpassing the combined shipments to Europe and North America for the first time, the report said.
“Chinese car manufacturers are rapidly gaining traction in the Middle East, positioning the region as a critical growth engine for their global exports,” said Alessandro Missaglia, Partner & Managing Director at AlixPartners.
“Customers appreciate the competitive pricing and high technology content of Chinese vehicles. These brands are steadily gaining ground on established players, a trend expected to accelerate with the gradual shift toward electric vehicles (EVs),” he said.
Andrew Bergbaum, Global Leader of the Automotive and Industrial Practice at AlixPartners, said China’s car sales to Russia and Belarus have more than doubled over the past five years, insulating it in part from the volatility of tariffs.
The AlixPartners report forecasts Chinese brands will account for 30 per cent of the global automotive market by 2030, up from 21 per cent in 2024 with big gains in emerging markets.
In the Middle East and Africa, Chinese brands are forecasted to achieve 34 per cent market share by 2030, a remarkable jump from just 10 per cent in 2024.
This makes it the region with the highest share of Chinese vehicles outside of China, Russia and Belarus.
“As Chinese automakers continue to advance in intelligent-driving technologies and electric vehicles, the Middle East is set to play an increasingly strategic role in their global growth ambitions.
“The region’s appetite for innovation, coupled with its investments in future mobility and sustainability, positions it as a key destination for next-generation automotive solutions,” the report said.
According to AlixPartners, the growing alignment between Chinese brands’ offerings and Middle Eastern market needs is expected to drive deeper partnerships, technology adoption, and competitive intensity across the automotive landscape in the coming years.
While countries continue to impose tariffs on China-brand vehicles, the impact remains muted.
According to the AlixPartners report, although recent tariffs from the US and other countries will increase the cost of China’s vehicle and auto components exports by about 24 per cent, or $46 billion, this represents only about 3.8 per cent of China’s total auto industry production value.
Growing export sales have been accompanied by continuing growth in the domestic Chinese market, which the report forecasts will grow by 4 per cent to 26.8 million vehicles in 2025, in sharp contrast to declines in other major markets.
Domestic growth in China is being driven by the rapid adoption of electric vehicles, increasingly with intelligent-vehicle features such as autonomous-driving systems, the report said.
Electric vehicle sales are forecast to account for 54 per cent of the domestic market in 2025, according to the report, released on the eve of the big auto show in Shanghai.
The domestic boom in China’s electric and intelligent vehicle sales has changed the trajectory of the price war that started in 2023, with financial incentives and new features increasingly replacing discounts on retail prices, according to the report.
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