United Arab Emirates policymakers kept up pressure for a review of Gulf Arab dollar pegs on Monday and currencies rallied across the oil-exporting region on a signal that Saudi Arabia may be willing to discuss reform.
The Saudi riyal hit a 21-year high and investors bet on an appreciation of 2.4% in a year after a source familiar with Saudi policy told Reuters the world’s largest oil exporter could consider its first revaluation since 1986.
Although the source ruled out dropping the peg in favour of a currency basket, he signalled that Riyadh, champion of the Gulf’s fixed exchange rates, may respond to a dollar slide that has the split a regional economic bloc and the OPEC oil cartel.
“That Saudi Arabia is prepared to admit in public that a revaluation could be one of the acceptable compromises, will increase pressure on Gulf currencies,” Marios Maratheftis, head of research at Standard Chartered in Dubai said in a note.
Investors seized on the news. Retail customers scrambled funds into UAE bank deposits. Hedge funds pushed Bahrain’s dinar to a 10-month peak and Oman’s rial to a month-high as Omani inflation data underlined the Gulf’s policy dilemma.
Inflation accelerated to a 16-year high of 7.09% in September as the cost of food, which Oman imports mainly from Asia and Europe, soared 14%.
Kuwait, one of six states preparing for monetary union as early as 2010, said the dollar’s slide was fuelling inflation by driving up import costs when its dropped its peg in May to track a currency basket. The dinar has since gained a 4.69%.
The UAE, where inflation hit a 19-year high of 9.3% last year, said it could follow Kuwait’s lead, partly because the peg was forcing the central bank to track US monetary policy at time when the Federal Reserve is cutting rates. UAE Central Bank Governor Sultan Nasser al-Suweidi said last week he would only act along with Saudi Arabia and other neighbours, although there was mounting social and economic pressure for change.
As if on cue, UAE officials talked up the need for currency reform.
“Now is the time to reconsider whether it’s viable to continue to peg the local currency to the dollar,” said Abdul-Aziz al-Ghurair, head of the UAE’s Federal National Council, which advises the government on laws.
The Abu Dhabi Chamber of Commerce recommended scrapping the peg in a report published in the Gulf News yesterday. State-sponsored Dubai Quality Group, a business forum, invited journalists to a discussion on currency policy.
“They are confusing the market and feeding into the speculative drive,” said John Sfakianakis, chief economist at SABB, HSBC’s Saudi affiliate.
Forward rate showed investors betting the dirham would appreciate 3% in a year.
Still, a UAE revaluation was not a foregone conclusion, said Omar bin Sulaiman, governor of the Dubai International Financial Centre.
“There have been talks across the private sector and government and decision-makers in the UAE,” said bin Sulaiman, who leads financial services strategy in Dubai.
Among Gulf states, the UAE has been hardest hit by the Fed cuts and the dollar’s slide a record low against the euro, a 26-year trough against sterling and an 18-month low against the yen this month.
Businesses are complaining about rising costs and migrant construction workers rioted in Dubai this month to demand a pay rise to compensate for savings lost due to the dollar’s slide.
Although any change should be agreed across the region, the UAE and others states could pushed ahead with reform if Gulf talks failed to clinch a deal, bin Sulaiman said.
In the first sign that regional currency reform talks were not doomed to deadlock, the source familiar with Riyadh’s policy said on Friday Saudi Arabia could consider a revaluation with Qatar, Bahrain and the UAE to keep monetary union alive.
Saudi officials including the central bank governor and finance minister have repeatedly ruled out changing the riyal’s exchange rate, which was fixed at 3.75 to the dollar in 1986.
Saudi partners in the Organization for the Petroleum Exporting Countries are complaining the tumbling dollar is eroding export revenues. OPEC agreed on Sunday to discuss the dollar weakness after Iran and Venezuela pushed to price oil in a currency basket.
There has been no change in Saudi currency policy, Central Bank Governor Hamad Saud al-Sayyari was quoted on Monday as saying in al-Eqtisadiah newspaper.
Follow us on
