Saxo Bank chief economist and CIO Steen Jakobsen who predicted Trump's win and Brexit, said Warren's rise is changing the dynamics of the 2020 campaign
American Senator Elizabeth Warren will defeat Donald Trump to become the next president of the United States, according to Steen Jakobsen, the chief economist and CIO of Saxo Bank who correctly predicted Trump’s election and Brexit.
In an opinion piece published in Arabian Business, Jakobsen said that he believes that the rise of Warren as the ‘clear’ Democratic candidate will fundamentally change the dynamics of the 2020 campaign.
“A Biden versus Trump scenario would have been two old men fighting it out over who is the most macho, while a battle of Warren versus Trump brings an enormous contrast of not just substance, but also style and persona,” he wrote.
Jakobsen noted that while Warren and Trump share a number of views: pro-tariffs, anti-strong Dollar, and a nationalistic rhetoric and agenda – and can broadly be called populists – the differences between them ae “stark, to say the least.”
“The most pronounced differences are on taxation, the role of government in policing big business and the role of government in creating jobs and improving wage prospects,” he added.
A Warren victory, Jakobsen added, would largely be driven by support from women and young voters, as well as middle and low income voters.
“Senator Warren speaks for [these voters] who have been left behind, also by President Trump, who has failed to turn the inequality narrative with his supply-side reforms,” he added. “The middle class, the young an women seem united in seeking an alternative. Alternative means ‘something very different’ – and Ms. Warren, she is very clear and very different in her rhetoric.”
Additionally, Jakobsen said that while a Trump victory over Joe Biden might be possible, “beating Warren based on policy will be a test of how extreme the non-core Trump supporters are revolted by his behaviour and record.”
A Warren victory would also be a test of how motivated marginal Democratic voters are when presented with a “new breed of candidate.”
However, Jakobsen acknowledged that most commentators still believe that Trump will defeat Warren.
“I suspect that, similar to the case during Trump’s own rise, their assumptions are based on old interpretation on what drives elections,” he added. “Let me stress the importance of how elections go down: they are lost more than they are won.”