Saudi Arabia will be “keeping an eye” on President-Elect Joe Biden’s statements about the kingdom in the weeks ahead as governments throughout the Gulf wait for more clarity on the incoming administration’s Middle East policy, according to Washington DC-based analysts.
While foreign policy concerns took a back seat to domestic issues during 2020 elections, many Middle East-focused analysts believe that one of the Biden administration’s first priorities in the Middle East will be to re-assess America’s relationship with Saudi Arabia.
In the past, Biden had pledged to make the kingdom a “pariah” as a result of its human rights record. President Donald Trump’s administration, on the other hand, has enjoyed warm relations with Saudi Arabia’s leadership, with the president choosing to go to Riyadh on his first overseas visit in 2017.
According to Hussein Ibish (pictured below), senior resident scholar at the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington (AGSIW), over the last several years many Democrats have “incorrectly” come to view the Trump administration’s proximity to Riyadh as a purely Republican policy.
“It was politically useful for Democrats as a way of confronting and condemning the Trump administration on foreign policy,” Ibish explained. “The juiciest form of attack against the Trump administration for Democrats was Washington’s ties to Saudi Arabia. The bill of grievances grew during the last four years.”
Another Trump friend congratulates President-Elect @JoeBiden:
Saudi Arabia's King Salman bin Abdulaziz & his son the Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman expressed “sincere congratulations and best wishes for success to His Excellency, and to the friendly people of the USA.”
— Jim Sciutto (@jimsciutto) November 8, 2020
Ibish added that while it will require some efforts by those in Biden’s government and Democrats in Congress to “sell” ongoing US-Saudi cooperation, it “cannot turn away” from the kingdom entirely.
“It wants to reassert the US leadership role globally, and that means a significant presence in the Gulf area and a partnership with Saudi Arabia on regional stability and stability in the oil markets,” he added.
“Washington and Riyadh are stuck together, but Democrats will have to be induced to accept this. The Biden administration will understand it though, as soon as it inherits responsibility for the outcomes of US foreign policy.”
Ibish’s thoughts were echoed by a Elana DeLozier, a research fellow and Gulf specialist at the DC-based Washington Institute for Near East Policy who formerly taught at NYU and Abu Dhabi’s Khalifa University.
“The Biden administration’s focus will absolutely be Saudi Arabia first,” she said. “The tone of the relationship will change on day one, but some foreign policy people close to the Biden camp seem to be hinting there will be a ‘review’ of Saudi policy, which will provide some time for what they see as corrective action on the Saudi part.”
Unfounded Gulf concerns?
In the weeks and months ahead, according to analysts, Gulf state leaders will be carefully watching Biden’s comments for indications that the incoming administration will return to Obama-era policies they disagreed with, particularly outreach to Iran being conducted without adequate reassurances to the Gulf states.
Additionally, Ibish said that the Biden administration will also have to content with a widespread – but “incorrect” – perception that the Obama administration was sympathetic to the Muslim Brotherhood, and that Democrats may wish to further draw down America’s footprint in the region.
“Word and deed from Washington will be judged based on these apprehensions,” he said. “My sense is that most of the Gulf countries will not have any problem with the Biden administration though.”
Congratulations to @JoeBiden and @KamalaHarris on winning the US elections. Our sincere wishes for further development and prosperity for the American people. The UAE and USA are friends and allies with a strong historic partnership that we look forward to strengthening together.
— محمد بن زايد (@MohamedBinZayed) November 7, 2020
DeLozier, for her part, said that while there may be some concern about Biden in Gulf capitals, they will also be keenly aware that his career in Washington began decades before he became Vice President in the Obama administration.
“He will not simply be Obama 2.0,” she said. “Analysts may be digging into Biden’s preferred policies when he was working on foreign relations in the Senate, and his statements on the campaign, as indicators of what’s to come.”
Mohammed Soliman, a senior associate with the Middle East and North Africa practice at the Washington DC-based McLarty Associates, said that despite the Gulf concerns, the GCC will remain “very central” to US strategy in the Middle East.
“President [Elect] Biden is no stranger to this reality, and he will work with Gulf allies on mutual interests that have historically governed US-GCC relations.”
The future of the Abraham Accords
Among the few Trump administration policies that the Biden administration is likely to continue, analysts believe, is encouraging Arab states to normalise relations with Israel as the UAE, Bahrain and Sudan have done. However, most say that such agreements are not likely to be a priority for the incoming administration.
“This is the kind of development that mainstream, internationalist Democrats like: stronger ties between existing countries, the resolution of disputes, the triumph of diplomacy, and the integration of Israel into the Middle East,” Ibish said. “It’s tailor-made to please them, and it does.”
“But they may not emphasise it as much as the Trump administration did, because they have other priorities,” he added. “Yet, they will seek to expand the circle.”
Mohammed Soliman, for his part, said that while Biden has expressed support for the deals, similar agreements are unlikely to be a priority.
“His administration will not be proactive in pursuing further peace deals, given his need to focus on domestic policy and [more] critical foreign policy priorities in the first year,” he said.
Sarah Elzeini (pictured below), the CEO and founder of SMZ International Group, a DC-based global advisory and strategic activities company, said that more agreements are likely to be signed, even without the Biden administration actively pushing for them.
“I think President-Elect Biden will certainly endorse it, but I think the momentum has already begun in the Arab World,” she said. “This will continue regardless of who is in the oval office. Governments and people are exhausted of endless political battles.”
Earlier in November ahead of the election, Biden campaign advisor Tony Blinken – who served as Biden’s national security adviser and Deputy Secretary of State during the Obama years – told the Times of Israel that the Biden campaign is broadly supportive of Arab normalisation deals with Israel.
“Symbolism matters and some of the additional practical things that flow from [these agreements] matter, including more people-to-people ties [and] more trade and investment,” he said. “As a basic principle, encouraging Arab countries to recognise and normalise with Israel is something we supported during the Obama-Biden administration and would support in a Biden-[Harris] administration.”
Four things we learned
- Analysts believe that a re-assessment of US relations with Saudi Arabia will likely be a foreign policy priority for the Biden administration
- The Biden administration will have to work to assuage Gulf concerns that he may return to unpopular Obama-era policies
- Biden is unlikely to step away from the GCC, according to Middle East watchers
- While Biden is largely supportive of Arab normalisation deals with Israel, they are unlikely to be a foreign policy priority
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